There's a similarity to Thiel's analysis -- that few outliers provide all the returns -- but also a difference: PG seems more comfortable with the idea that early on, the ultimate winners are completely unknowable, and so 'many trails' (diversification) is absolutely necessary.

Meanwhile, throughout his lectures, Thiel seems to emphasize that with enough focus on the right people. important projects, and right 'secrets', outcomes are not as random as they seem... and both individuals and investors must concentrate on some big bets rather than endlessly diversify.