It's utterly insane that people need to work more and longer as technology increases productivity. A truly dystopian economic system.
In 1930 Keynes projected that by 2000 their grandchildren could work 15 hours per week¹. Now the projection is that we will work more and longer in the future.
And what is this labor supposed to even do? How much of even current work really increases wellbeing?
Graeber's thesis of bullshit jobs becomes increasingly more convincing: work isn't about production, it's about social control².
Yes, that's what strikes me as well. Where is the productivity gains going? Why are we still working 40 hour weeks, and possibly even for many more years?
If I remember correctly, Denmark even removed a holiday recently. So work more days a year as well.
That's the problem here. That a few people reap all the benefits of this, while the rest of us toil.
I have no specific figures to back this up, but my assumption is that as we become more productive, more credit is made available, which leads to bigger debts and asset price inflation. Because of the asset price inflation, the debt is not necessarily used for productive purchases but, for example, to pay more for existing things - the obvious one being a home. The productivity gains are therefore claimed by creditors.
It would be interesting to see how well productivity increases and debt growth (esp. private) correlate.
I wonder what a good answer would be here. Intuitively we are increasing productivity in activities that does not increase social welfare. Take corporate lawyering, marketing as an example.
The rising wealth inequality is a blunt answer. Similarly saying that we are increasing productivity in activities that protect interest of the rich.
It seems that significant amount of productivity gains are lost because of activities that profit from deception and counter activities that accounts for them.
Its an intrinsically anti-human system thats starting to need less and less people. How these surplus people are dealt with isn't going to be pretty... Hopefully it results in the actors, being human and all, having a social revolution and pivoting away from it.
If you wanted to live to a 1930s standard of education, healthcare, food, entertainment, interior decorarion, transportation, savings etc etc you could most definitely do it on very few hours of work. Lots of people associated with homesteading, tiny houses etc do so.
That said I agree we should be further ahead in paving a way to paradise.
It's not necessarily about the standard of living, but about production going into the zero or negative sum status consumption. Or as Keynes puts it:
> Now it is true that the needs of human beings may seem to be insatiable. But they fall into two classes -- those needs which are absolute in the sense that we feel them whatever the situation of our fellow human beings may be, and those which are relative in the sense that we feel them only if their satisfaction lifts us above, makes us feel superior to, our fellows. Needs of the second class, those which satisfy the desire for superiority, may indeed be insatiable; for the higher the general level, the higher still are they. But this is not so true of the absolute needs -- a point may soon be reached, much sooner perhaps than we are all of us aware of, when these needs are satisfied in the sense that we prefer to devote our further energies to non-economic purposes.
It's precisely what Keynes meant. He meant that 15 hours of labor now will buy you what 40 would then. How could he have meant anything else?
How would he anticipate houses 50% larger than his generation's, or cars with twice the horsepower at four times the gas mileage, or universal air conditioning (as few houses in the US lack air conditioning now as lacked running water in 1950) or a monthly bill for Internet or proles being able to afford intercontinental flights more than once in a lifetime?
He postulated eightfold increse in economy, though not clear at what working hours. If he assumed 40 hours then and eightfold productivity increse, with 15 hours that would still be threefold increase in living standards. The productivity has increased even more than eightfold.
Keynes was quite damn good at anticipating things.
Yes. That's math, the rule of 72. At a 2% growth rate the economy will be 8 times larger in 108 years, more or less. The rate is a bit higher, so we're a bit over 8 in the 95 years since that's been written.
> Keynes was quite damn good at anticipating things.
But that's not anticipating things, that's projecting an existing growth rate out for another century. Improbable really that it would neither rise nor fall, and one of the reasons it hasn't fallen is that we didn't cut our work week to 15 hours. So the only thing (in this context) that he really anticipated was wrong.
> In 1930 Keynes projected that by 2000 their grandchildren could work 15 hours per week
This projection came true. You can live with a 1930s living standard while working 15 hours per week at a median wage. However, nobody wants to live at a 1930s living standard. It turns out that in aggregate people prefer to spend productivity gains on conveniences and higher standards of living than on working fewer hours.
- Asset inflation can be tackled with flexibility. The level of flexibility my acquaintance showed is not required. He bought a fixer-upper two apartment building with a garden in a livable small walkable eurozone city for 5k€.
- The productivity growth really has had incredibly strong deflationary effects. So much more, more diverse, tastier and healthier food for example, for so much less money.
- The growing affluence has really created incredible opportunities for scavenging from the waste stream. A practical example. About half of the food I eat is leftovers from a nearby school. I'm proud to be saving good food from going to waste _and_ it lowers our expenses quite significantly.
> It's utterly insane that people need to work more and longer as technology increases productivity. A truly dystopian economic system.
Keynes was almost right. He underestimated the ability of future generations to consume conspicuously. Also, the need for many to fit in by working, but I digress.
Many don't _have_ to work more and longer. I'm speaking of a large class, very much overrepresented on HN, of smart, healthy westerners with no dependents to care for. We have only one major problem. We live in this bubble nudging us towards conspicuous consumption - gently or less so.
My job closely resembles Keynes' 1930's prediction. Sometimes I work (much) more. Not because I need money, but because the job is interesting. Interesting as in, me learning, contributing something positive to other people's lives, growing my family's financial resilience and robustness, or just enjoying the flow.
> How much of even current work really increases wellbeing?
If you think about it, there are fewer and fewer jobs that are genuinely useful.
I know it's a difficult topic, but I can't shake the feeling that we need some sort of government intervention in order to reorient the economy towards activities that actually benefit us.
It's not insane if you consider that people neglect to raise the next generation to fund their retirement. Fund in the real sense: by doing work and ceding part of the yield to people who retired from work but keep consuming.
Whatever people save for retirement, cash or stocks or points, it only facilitates the said exchange, it doesn't somehow replace or alleviate it. It only works if the next generation exists and is prosperous enough to share their income.
It’s not insane. People are living longer than before, unfortunately when initially set up, people didn’t take increasing longevity into account as well as lower fertility rates. Quite a few people never got to retirement when initially instituted. Where is money supposed to come from?
Historically, in multigenerational households of yore elders were productive till they could no more.
We don’t live with 1930s standards of housing, education, welfare, material wealth, services, etc, etc, etc. Compare the taxes you pay now with the taxes people paid in the 1930s.
> It's utterly insane that people need to work more and longer as technology increases productivity.
Productivity gains are kept by the owners of the institutions as profits that made that productivity possible. Do you think YOU will work less once LLM tech is deployed at scale? Of course not, your company will pay you the same and expect the same work. Every company out there will do the same. They will reap the productivity gains.
Retirement started as ”you’re too old and frail to work”, but morphed into ”now that you’ve worked for a number of decades, you can relax and enjoy life for 20+ years before your health starts to deteriorate”
Personally I think we should revert to the earlier system, where you are free to retire as soon as you want on your own money, but if you want the state (=other regular people) to fund your lifestyle, you need to be no longer fit for work
In 1930 Keynes projected that by 2000 their grandchildren could work 15 hours per week¹. Now the projection is that we will work more and longer in the future.
And what is this labor supposed to even do? How much of even current work really increases wellbeing?
Graeber's thesis of bullshit jobs becomes increasingly more convincing: work isn't about production, it's about social control².
[1] http://www.econ.yale.edu/smith/econ116a/keynes1.pdf
[2] https://strikemag.org/bullshit-jobs/