It's definitely #3. The GPUs have to first satisfy Google's own computing needs, and only then can they start selling them to others. Given how much training and inference the company is doing and how much demand there is internally it's very unlikely they are able to manufacture loads of extras, especially not profitably.
Would Google seriously have trouble raising the funds to build a chip fab? This seems like something they could do if they actually want to but I’d guess that would take actual leadership when they appear to have none.
Especially in today’s political climate, building this in a purple state would ensure longevity too. The Trump admin would probably let them break ground immediately if they had the plans and I doubt democratic leadership would disagree either.
If I was an investor and Google said they are going to now compete with Nvidia and TSMC I would take that as a sign they the leadership has completely lost the ability to see what their core competency is. Investing 100-200+ billion into fabs just to be on an equal playing field, is not it.
Would be a poor allocation of capital. Especially since, as they build up capacity for their own jobs, they get to see the excess to customers.
