The global economy is a complex system. Far more complex than software. All of the nerds will adjust their pocket protectors and spew their dubious word-salad (for or against), but the fact of the matter is that nobody truly knows what the nth-order effects will be until they happen.
AEI is just another church of Austrian economics--still burning incense for the ghost of Milton Friedman. If you told any of them, "Tariffs, or your mother dies in her sleep tonight.", they would reply in chorus, "Oh well, that's why I keep a picture to remember her by." If any of these people actually knew what they were talking about, they would be fabulously wealthy hedgies like Dalio or Simons, rather than "think-tank" shills.
> All of the nerds will adjust their pocket protectors and spew their dubious word-salad (for or against), but the fact of the matter is that nobody truly knows what the nth-order effects will be until they happen
It doesn't really matter if they analyze the nth-order effects correctly because there is enough wrong with these tariffs that the 1st order effects will be bad enough that the higher order effects won't matter.
Even if Trump is right that the US should not have a trade deficit it only makes sense to apply that to US trade a whole, not to trade with each individual country.
If you apply it to each country independently then you cannot trade with a country that has something you need but doesn't need anything from you. That would exclude circular trade (US buys from A, A buys from B, B buys from the US) for example.
AEI is just another church of Austrian economics--still burning incense for the ghost of Milton Friedman. If you told any of them, "Tariffs, or your mother dies in her sleep tonight.", they would reply in chorus, "Oh well, that's why I keep a picture to remember her by." If any of these people actually knew what they were talking about, they would be fabulously wealthy hedgies like Dalio or Simons, rather than "think-tank" shills.