In the long run it could lead to more fair trade deals.
Today’s episode of Newshour at the BBC World Service had a conversation between a BBC journalist and a German CDU politician where they talked about how the tariffs on cars from Germany entering America has historically been lower than the tariffs on cars from America entering Germany. The CDU politician was telling the BBC that he hoped maybe a resolution for all of this would be both America and Europe lowering their tariffs to zero.
That was the hope of that politician in the long run though. In the short run the politician was in a sad mood because he felt things economically are going to be bad for everybody.
I think that is unlikely. Trade deals require precitability and trust. Nobody wants to sign a trade deal if it might not be worth the paper its written on next week.
I would expect that it would make future trade agreements more "unfair" to usa because other countries will price in a risk premium to cover america's unpredictability.
e.g. The U.S. has now violated CUSMA/USMCA/NAFTA 2.0 to an egregious degree, and this treaty is due to be renegotiated next year. As an unreliable partner, the U.S. is going to have to give up some serious concessions to Mexico and Canada to make the treaty happen. It's no different than applying for a loan with a low credit score. If you're a higher risk, the rates will be unfavourable.
Trump himself has said the tariffs are to raise revenue in order to get rid of income and corporate taxes. But now they’re also a negotiating tool to eventually remove all tariffs with our trade partners? That makes no sense
Today’s episode of Newshour at the BBC World Service had a conversation between a BBC journalist and a German CDU politician where they talked about how the tariffs on cars from Germany entering America has historically been lower than the tariffs on cars from America entering Germany. The CDU politician was telling the BBC that he hoped maybe a resolution for all of this would be both America and Europe lowering their tariffs to zero.
That was the hope of that politician in the long run though. In the short run the politician was in a sad mood because he felt things economically are going to be bad for everybody.