> The Chinese are strategic and patient. They just need to wait a few more years until they are able to blockade the entire island for long period of time. Then they can potentially take the island without firing a single shot. they don’t need to take on this kind of risk right now.
...On the other hand, if they want to take Taiwan with a low probability of the U.S. intervening, it's hard to imagine a better time than right now.
One of the lessons Xi might have taken from Russia's war on Ukraine is that Putin made a tactical blunder by not invading during Trump's first term. Without the Biden administration's active support of Ukraine, Putin would likely have been more successful.
It's hard to guess probabilities on these sorts of things, but the current situation makes me uncomfortable.
(For what it's worth, the likelihood of a major Cascadia fault earthquake happening during the Trump administration is something that we can estimate the probability of, and even though it's not particularly high, it also makes me uncomfortable as an Oregonian.)
...On the other hand, if they want to take Taiwan with a low probability of the U.S. intervening, it's hard to imagine a better time than right now.
One of the lessons Xi might have taken from Russia's war on Ukraine is that Putin made a tactical blunder by not invading during Trump's first term. Without the Biden administration's active support of Ukraine, Putin would likely have been more successful.
It's hard to guess probabilities on these sorts of things, but the current situation makes me uncomfortable.
(For what it's worth, the likelihood of a major Cascadia fault earthquake happening during the Trump administration is something that we can estimate the probability of, and even though it's not particularly high, it also makes me uncomfortable as an Oregonian.)