I’m split on this. Part of me is very sad because Ukraine has gotten such a raw deal, not just recently but historically. They’ve always been trampled on as a fairly poor place. And it’s a bit classless to spit on Zelensky as he’s holding out his hat for donations, as he must.
But I also believe Ukraine is increasingly a distraction from more pressing concerns, both domestically and abroad. Frankly, there will probably come a day when the current world manufacturing superpower (China) decides to throw their weight around. And that day may be very soon.
As Americans I think there is a huge amount of hubris preventing us from seeing how vulnerable we really are. Outspending adversaries on military should be seen as weakness, not a strength, especially when we consider 1) the fact that American manufacturing is more expensive 2) a lot of spending is maintaining legacy systems 3) an adversary will likely not try to compete in conventional means 4) China graduated more STEM majors than all US majors combined which drives down costs 5) China has recently become the number 1 car exporter 6) US payments on debt now exceed defense spending for the first time in ~90 years despite not even being at war 7) almost all chips are currently made in Taiwan.
(If anyone doubts this, they should watch videos of Chinese drone shows, and imagine it being scaled up 100x.)
And just to double down on the hubris bit. Every single time I see some discussion of research that came out of China I see the same old tropes: they can’t innovate, it’s stolen IP, it’s low quality. Things that are either false or irrelevant. It didn’t matter that the Soviets stole blueprints to nuclear weapons.
I don't think it's a distraction so much as rather important to detering China. If Putin can invade Ukraine and get away with it China will assume it can do the same for Taiwan and other territory it wants. If the west stops Putin, China will think twice.
What would actually deter China is strategic certainty that invading Taiwan 1) won’t work and 2) will have severe geopolitical consequences. Neither of those are true now.
But I also believe Ukraine is increasingly a distraction from more pressing concerns, both domestically and abroad. Frankly, there will probably come a day when the current world manufacturing superpower (China) decides to throw their weight around. And that day may be very soon.
As Americans I think there is a huge amount of hubris preventing us from seeing how vulnerable we really are. Outspending adversaries on military should be seen as weakness, not a strength, especially when we consider 1) the fact that American manufacturing is more expensive 2) a lot of spending is maintaining legacy systems 3) an adversary will likely not try to compete in conventional means 4) China graduated more STEM majors than all US majors combined which drives down costs 5) China has recently become the number 1 car exporter 6) US payments on debt now exceed defense spending for the first time in ~90 years despite not even being at war 7) almost all chips are currently made in Taiwan.
(If anyone doubts this, they should watch videos of Chinese drone shows, and imagine it being scaled up 100x.)
And just to double down on the hubris bit. Every single time I see some discussion of research that came out of China I see the same old tropes: they can’t innovate, it’s stolen IP, it’s low quality. Things that are either false or irrelevant. It didn’t matter that the Soviets stole blueprints to nuclear weapons.