China is now very tightly coupled with Russia and Iran. The biggest threat to US hegemony is not Russia, not by a mile. China has the means, the power and the will to start asserting itself on the global stage.

Trump's attitude toward Ukraine does not deter China from actions such as the invasion of Taiwan; it only encourages them. In the last 10 days, Trump has granted Russia a long list of concessions without receiving anything in return. His representative Witkoff couldn't name a single thing during an interview yesterday. Russians are literally wondering if this is some kind of clever trap or if Trump is really this dumb. If Trump does not make a 180 degree turn soon and folds to Russia on Ukraine, then it looks like a rare and highly favorable window of opportunity has opened for China to invade Taiwan.

  Trump wants to split Russia away from China and is willing to give up on Ukraine in order to make this happen. It's that simple. 

Russia never cared about China. To them, it's a distant and strange country that they don't understand and have little in common with. Even much less than the US, because they have no outsourced manufacturing there and they are too far behind to have a rivalry in science and technology. Instead, they see the US as the main adversary in the world, because the US stands in the way of conquering Eastern Europe. They are willing to promise anything if that gives them any advantage at the expense of the US and the transatlantic alliance. They will break these promises whenever it suits them. And Trump is currently proving that he is entirely unwilling to demand the fulfillment of previous promises. So for Russia, promising to "split from China" is free. It doesn't mean nor cost anything.