"The key question is not whether there ARE tech companies getting started in Canada, it's whether they will stay in Canada once successful to help re-invest in the industry here."

I think that movement is changing.. Yes, it's harder to raise money up north but the cost for talent and gov funded programs here make Canada one of the most attractive places to start a company. Once established, why move down south?

> "Once established, why move down south?"

Later, and much larger, rounds of funding that is entirely unheard of in Canada.

Also, talent. This might be inflammatory, but I venture that the bulk of Canada's A-talent is already in the USA. Given the ease of the TN visa, I think it's not a stretch to say that if you're offering $70K for software engineers in Toronto, you are not hiring any of Canada's top talent, because they're all in the US making $150K+.

In my experience the few talented people who remain do so out of philosophical or family-related reasons, and that's a tiny, tiny slice of the overall pie.

> "I think that movement is changing.."

As a Canadian expat in the US I disagree. In fact, if anything, in recent years the brain drain of software talent from Canada to the US has increased as the software industry heats up down south. If your top players are consistently moving out of the country, it doesn't matter what government programs exist, you've already lost.

Talent is 95% of the problem. So long as US companies are offering fresh graduates $120K+ comp packages to live in sunny California, and Canadian firms have trouble ponying up more than $60K, the brain drain will continue, and Canada will continue to be scraping the bones of its own talent pool.

Definitely agree with this. I enjoy my work for a small company in Waterloo, but the compensation is definitely a pittance, and that aspect has frustrated me the entire time I've been there. We get a lot of government money too--- IRAP, SR&ED, OCE, etc, but the lack of a VC scene means we're basically stuck bootstrapping the company. Everyone's very wealthy on paper, but stock options don't put a roof over a young family.

We've stayed in the area for exactly the reasons you speak of---proximity to family, and concerns about US politics, healthcare, etc. But it's agony to look around and see so few job alternatives, especially when I've been invited on multiple occasions to apply for positions in the valley based on nothing more than a HN comment. sigh

> Also, talent. This might be inflammatory, but I venture that the bulk of Canada's A-talent is already in the USA. Given the ease of the TN visa, I think it's not a stretch to say that if you're offering $70K for software engineers in Toronto, you are not hiring any of Canada's top talent, because they're all in the US making $150K+.

A computer programmer/software engineer/software developer is not technically eligible for TN status. A 'Computer Systems Analyst' is eligible for TN status, but as an informal rule if your jobs involves more than 10%-20% coding you do not qualify for Computer Systems Analyst. While I'm sure many developers are working as a Computer System Analyst, they are at risk of being denied entry every time the enter the country if the USCIS official decides they do not qualify. So there are still significant immigration barriers that act to keep a good portion of Canadian talent in Canada.

Actually, it is not necessary for devs to be classified as CSAs - plenty enter under the Engineer classification (I've done this myself)

The CSA is a common catch-all, since USCIS tends to frown upon CS degrees using the Engineer title. But if you area a CE, EE, SE, etc, this is a straightforward path.

The barriers are not significant especially when weighed against the payoff, and consider that all of the major software firms do this so much that success is more or less guaranteed (e.g., if you are denied your TN at the border, the big shops will send a lawyer up to argue your case on your amended re-try). Most companies go so far out of their way to bring in Canadian talent that it greatly diminishes the systemic issues you're likely to experience.

TN1 is not really a viable option unless for very young out of school kids to try out their luck and gain a few years of experience somewhere else.

Anyone that has family or house in Canada would be crazy to uproot their family and go to the USA on TN1. Because the visa is for a limited time and has to be renewed by going back to Canada and re-applying just like you did the first time. And it is at the sole discretion of the person you are talking to at the border to either grant you the visa or not. And they don't have to justify their decision to anyone (there are quite a few horror stories related to this).

This pretty much means that someone with experience, making decent money in Canada, with house etc would be crazy to put themselves through that kind of additional stress and uncertainty by living in the USA on TN1. Besides, USA with its out of control gun culture, out of control politics, christian fundamentalism, and horrible health care is not really that attractive.

The TN1 is actually not hard to get at all, despite the horror stories that you sometimes hear, especially if your employer is one of the "majors" (e.g., Google, Microsoft, Facebook, etc), who will pull out the stops to ensure your visa works out.

For example, if you fail the TN application at the border, it's common for companies to send a lawyer up to accompany you the second time, to ensure success. It's expensive, but the big boys do it.

It's also not strictly necessary to renew the TN at the border just like the initial application: I've had TNs processed directly via the USCIS without difficulty, and the whole thing is done by mail, and judged by someone less temperamental than your average CBP officer.

Sure, systemically US immigration is really screwed up, but it's really not hard to get the TN, and if you're working for one of the known software companies, they will pull out the stops to guarantee success.

> "Besides, USA with its out of control gun culture, out of control politics, christian fundamentalism, and horrible health care is not really that attractive."

The vast majority of (desirable) software jobs in the US are in extremely liberal tech hubs like SF/SV, Seattle, New York, etc. This has always been a concern of mine, but it has largely not materialized.

American expat in Canada here. Agreed that the compensation is not as competitive as in the US, and the prospect of living in bustling NY or sunny Cali is probably quite alluring for Canadian programmers to boot. (Having moved from Texas, I'm not sure I could thrive in Toronto and am quite relieved that Victoria has lovely weather.)

That said, the Canadian system seems to be far less dysfunctional than its American counterpart. Perhaps the brain drain will diminish if political or economic turmoil continues to make the US less appealing for the liberal crowd?

Not to mention cheap, quality education drawing Americans and other foreigners into Canada (it did for me and I stayed after my degree was finished).