I hate to sound like an Apple fanboy, but you need more than a pretty phone to dethrone the iPhone. The App store is the best thing since sliced bread. The ever-growing developer enthusiasm for the iPhone is a huge factor too.
And if webOS is basically web-based, that means that all of Palm's apps will be available on the iPhone, but none of the iPhone's apps will be available on the Palm Pre. Not exactly a winning proposition.
Well done for getting the design close to Apple's standards (though they had to poach a team of Apple people to do that, all the way down to the packaging that looks just like Apple's), but being a second fiddle won't win this war...
This is not to say that it won't be successful. This Pre is clearly a slick piece of kit. But it won't be anywhere as successful as the iPhone, and certainly won't do "better" than the iPhone.
They don't need to "dethrone the iPhone" to succeed, in the same way Apple didn't need to "dethrone Windows" to succeed. There's no reason why multiple manufacturers can't all have viable businesses in the same market space.
If the call quality is good (read: way better than Apple/AT&T) and if the network access is good (read: way better than AT&T) and if they address some annoyances that Apple creates with its highly restrictive user experience control policies, then they will give Apple a real run for their money.
BUT, if they can unify Facebook apps with a mobile device, this could be the start of something really huge. If someone (or someones) manages to unify all of the social networks with a mobile device, this would clearly leapfrog Apple's iPhone. We can access Twitter, Facebook, our blog, and location-aware social networks on the iPhone, but this experience is currently somewhat fragmented, and that aspect definitely sucks. If something enabled by the Palm Pre manages to unify all of the above, then this would be a huge game-changing win.
All Scoble said was it had a better user experience. You can split hairs about whether app selection should be figured into UX - I think maybe it should - but that clearly isn't what Scoble means.
Being based on HTML and JS does not mean that Pre apps will be served up over HTTP. My bet is they get compiled like any app for iPhone or Android.
Bottom line: the article didn't say the Pre will "dethrone" the iPhone. Palm doesn't need it to; they just have to have a viable business. As of today, they do - I for one wouldn't have said that two days ago.
He said that it is about to kick Apple into the "deathbin of history." I think that's pretty much the same thing as saying it will "dethrone" the iPhone.
I take everything that Scoble says with a grain of salt; he is overexcited and hyperbolic about everything. However, I think that he is right that this is device is special; It seems to be the first "iPhone-killer" which has actually surpassed Apple in some areas, rather than being an inferior ripoff like the others.
"And if webOS is basically web-based, that means that all of Palm's apps will be available on the iPhone, but none of the iPhone's apps will be available on the Palm Pre"
You are counting on webOS being nothing more than a WebKit browser. I am sure that's not the case.
I am also sure the iPhone is not the primary target the Pre is aimed at. There is a host of Windows Mobile, RIM and Symbian slightlycleverphones (it takes more than a qwerty keyboard to be a smartphone) that are pretty much in Palm's crosshairs.
And, sorry to say, you sound like an Apple fanboy ;-) I know. I sound like one very frequently.
"You are counting on webOS being nothing more than a WebKit browser. I am sure that's not the case."
Even if it's not, the fact remains that apps written in HTML+CSS+javascript (what's more, HTML+CSS+JS tweaked to run on WebKit) will be trivial to port to the iPhone -- not just because the iPhone has a fantastic webkit browser, but because the apps themselves will be trivial.
The Pre, at best, will be a phone of widgets (I like your "slightly clever phone" moniker). I've made my share of widgets, and I know they can be both fun and useful. But after three months of game development on the iPhone, I would hang myself if I didn't have Cocoa. The Pre is going to see twenty versions of Lights Out, but you'll never see a Cro Mag or a Crayon Physics.
When people go on about the iPhone being a "computer in your pocket" they're talking about Cocoa its OS X underpinnings. Mojo and WebOS, at best, put safari in your pocket, and the iPhone already does that for cheaper.
Maybe you're right, and the Palm doesn't have the iPhone in its crosshairs. But I'm not sure how that helps them.
Unless you have hooks for deeper functionality inside the JavaScript interpreter used to run the application logic. And I somewhat doubt Palm will refrain to release a full SDK for the native OS.
How many hooks do you really need to get a developer up-and-running? File system access? Ability to play sounds?
AIR has a very limited set of extra javascript commands, but it is enough to give the developer the feeling they are definitely delivering a client-side app.
Functionality like what? Will it let you import physics libraries written in C? Give you access to OpenGL in javascript? What about networking stacks? What if I need OpenSSL? At a certain point you end up reinventing an awful lot of wheels even if the hooks are all there.
I think the mini-revolution Palm's pulled off isn't being understood. They've implemented a full SDK in HTML/CSS/JS. Unlike the helpless widgets of the apple-side, Palm's presenting their entire API as a set of extensions to a pretty forward-looking HTML stack.
From what I've seen:
- Graphics: HTML5 canvas. No word yet on if it's got the 3D support that's been planned for that canvas. But 2D access for graphics is pretty certain.
- Other than that, HTML5 local storage for your app data. They even have javascript access to old palm .pdb files.
- Javascript access to the contacts, calendar, phone, etc. APIs
- The app is stored locally, and can run without network access.
- As for networking/ssl... it's a web app written in HTML/AJAX, think about it :-)
Wonderful! I always dreamed of programming phones in HTML/CSS/JS. This is a great step forward from C/C++/ObjC. Joking, of course... but this seems to me the way for trivial apps, given the constraint in a phone-sized OS.
I hope to be wrong. Palm has been my first (useful) PDA...
While it'd be way more difficult to write the next office clone in this stack, the vast majority of apps we see on mobile devices are frontends to web data, calculators, or databases of some sort. In those cases, I think these APIs might be just about perfect.
Perhaps they'll provide ways to extend out the javascript APIs (e.g. native code modules) later.
The vast majority of apps we saw on mobile devices, you mean. Then the iPhone and Android-based phones came along. If simple frontends are what the Pre plans to focus on, then Palm is still fighting the last war.
Games aside, there's hardly anything on the App Store that couldn't be done in webOS. It's not just "local webpages" -- the SMS and phone apps are written in it, after all.
I think if the choice was between a third all-new alien SDK and luring developers in with HTML+JS, Palm made the right choice.
Um, I hate to break it to you, but none of that is Palm-specific. In fact, it's all available on the iPhone already. It all comes out of WebKit, which is mostly developed by Apple. Going back further, the canvas was developed by Apple for Dashboard before it was ever standardized.
I agree that it's neat--in fact, I expected that in the way of an iPhone SDK long before the native one existed (and given the number of ex-Apple employees on the team maybe that's where the idea came from)--but I wouldn't call it a mini-revolution. It's just an SDK built on an existing open source platform.
what it's gonna come down to is the price of the phone. if the Pre can not compete in terms of price, it will not fair well. this is the same thing that happened to the ipod. there were a lot of competitors, who essentially had a very similar product, but just could not compete in terms of price. also, the fact that iphone has a running start in the app development market, just makes it more unlikely for the pre to complete effectively. also, from what i hear inside palm, they are still trying to make webOS "smoother".
by the time Pre comes to the market in a few months, apple will have the iphone 2.0 to announce. i'm just really glad, we are finally seeing some competition in this market space. this will drive the service providers to compete for my data plan purchase.
The inductive charger/stand accessory is really nice, along with the act-like-a-phone and automatic speakerphone functions, this could easily get much love from the business world.
I say this as an iPhone lover, but I think you might be jumping to conclusions prematurely.
Granted, the fact that that iPhone already has an awesome product in the market (version 2.0 at that) puts them light years ahead of the product demo Palm has at the trade show.
But just because something is miles ahead of current competition doesn't mean your safe forever. The iPhone has some serious weaknesses, including but not limited to:
* No background processing for third party apps
* No cut/copy/paste
* Restrictive application distribution
Okay, true, I could only think of three weaknesses (cause seriously, my iPhone is f'ing sweet), but if Palm could match them on the UI, best them on their weaknesses, and make a strong play for the corporate market, they could be on to something.
At a minimum it would be nice for Apple to sweat a bit so they finally get MOVING on the aforementioned weaknesses.
I think it's shortsighted to think that Apple's shortcoming is any of those missing features.
In the end Palm has completely out-done Apple is one very crucial area: workflow. The iPhone has a great UI, but horrible workflow. Anyone can figure out how to do anything on an iPhone, but it's neither simple nor fast.
Palm is clearly not going after "trend" users, but rather the hardcore productivity types who need to get things done efficiently.
You missed "physical qwerty keyboard". That's my reason not to get a storm or an iphone, just can't type as fast without it. Pre's got the 320x480 res and a keyboard, and thus my interest. The webkit browser might push it past blackberry as well. I had a treo doing touch for few years, but the browser was useless. I wonder how the push email works on the Pre.
I don't consider not having a physical keyboard a weakness. One thing that you can do with the virtual keyboard that you can't do with a physical keyboard is change to the keys to show more useful keys depending on the situation. Then when you don't need the keys at all you can have all the screen to work with. Personally I consider having a physical keyboard to be a drawback.
I agree with you, but I think your parent's post still makes sense. The Pre does have a static keyboard, yes, but it also has a nice big screen where (presumably) those extra functions you mention could still be used.
But then again, that makes the phone bulkier. I'm very pleased not having a physical keyboard on my phone at all.
Yeah the bulkyness is an issue. I noticed that the Pre is shorter than the the iphone, but it's quite a bit thicker. I really like how thin the iphone is and would even like it thinner like the ipod touch.
As a user of both French and English, having the ability to switch from QWERTY to AZERTY in a single click on my iPhone is something I really appreciate. Especially since switching to French loads up the French dictionary, completing and correcting words in the language I'm currently using. I probably use 80% English, 20% French, and live in France so having only a French keyboard would be pretty annoying.
You're an Apple fanboy :) 5 million devices sold isn't a dominant market position in the mobile market. It's a drop in the ocean. The market is still wide open and Palm may just have invented the best crossover device for casual users (small form factor) and business users (real keyboard).
The app store issue is moot. There isn't a killer must have app that would keep people on the Apple platform. Facebook is the killer app for the under 35 crowd and it's integrated into the Palm. The iPhone could take note.
It won't be better? I find the iPhone annoying, large and clunky. I'd buy a Pre today if it was out.
form the specs I've seen of the Pre, it is about twice the thickness of the iPhone and the other dimensions are only slightly less. I guess you will find the Pre also large and clunky.
"And if webOS is basically web-based, that means that all of Palm's apps will be available on the iPhone, but none of the iPhone's apps will be available on the Palm Pre. Not exactly a winning proposition."
And you'd be right, if they do it the way original iPhone apps were done - scaled down websites running in a browser.
But not if what they actually have is a rendering engine as part of the OS and a Javascript API for things like location, sound, data, etc.
Then you have a powerful SDK that everyone and their little brother already pretty much knows how to use.
And yet, I still can't figure out what's so good or new about the App Store. Sure, it's a centralized place to get mobile software, but it's not hard at all to find software online for other platforms (Palm, Windows Mobile,etc.). If anything, the App Store with its renowned restrictions, simply limits the number of interesting applications released for the iPhone. It may be good for the developers, I can't argue that point, although I don't understand why it would be.
And about "success." The Razr had enjoyed more "success" than the iPhone by how you must be measuring success. I measure success by how satisfied I am with the phone, even if no one else bought the thing. I'm not saying the Palm Pre will be great, because there's no way to know.
The App store is the best thing since sliced bread.
The App store is integrated into iTunes. When I was building white label digital music download shops, iTunes was constantly the thing that haunted our every move.
The seamless iPod -> iTunes integration is a killer feature. While I think it's not an insurmountable barrier I think it's definitely a factor. They don't just have to beat the iPhone they also need to beat parts of iTunes.
Um, while a product is still vapor (hasn't shipped yet, genius) its a little hard to declare it a winner. How many concept cars has GM made that would own ALL other cars out there, only to have them produce a Pontiac Sun Fire with a different body kit? (Original re-make of the GTO, I'm looking at you.)
(Disclaimer: Some of my friends from college work at Palm now. If you're reading this this, Matt, good job, I think your product kicked ass.)
Read it as if he's evaluating the product on the merits, not as if he's predicting the market. The iPhone is going to crush this thing, but it's still a nice looking device.
I know, I'm just saying, sometimes features get pulled at the last minute on behest of the carrier or because they're not "stable" enough -- or cost. Until it ships, its hard to judge.
But competition is good, tho. I'm in favor of Palm kicking ass and taking names.
"not many people" are the writers/reviewers. Scoble has a good point. The Zune network assumed you were within proximity of another Zune user. That would be cool if everyone had a Zune, sort of. If you're under 35 most of your friends have Facebook accounts and the network doesn't partition when you move 30 feet ;)
I hope so. As a Sprint customer, I've been waiting for such a device. As a general consumer, I'm glad that others are challenging Apple. I love Apple, but I also like others to be able to challenge them. In my opinion, no one was able to match the iPod for ease of use and size. The Palm pre is at least dimensionally competitive at a mere 2grams heavier and only 15% greater volume (a real keyboard takes up some space).
It's nice to see someone who hasn't decided, "we can make it kinda appear to be an iPhone" in the way that the G1 disappointed with its lack of multi-touch capabilities.
There are numerous Android devices planned for the near future. I own a G1 and I see it as a development platform. The hardware leaves something to be desired, but Android is actually quite nice.
I love my iPhone. But giving developers the option to cook up apps in HTML/JS is a very slick move.
I don't know how it'll play out, but any average web developer will be able to immediately pump out an app without breaking open a iPhone SDK tome.
I don't know if it's possible to advance against the AppStore line of offense, but it's a seriously smart move.
I think their next coup should be to create an "open framework" so that other phone designers can latch on to whatever OS-specific hooks Palm plans on using.
I feel like this is critical. It can't be a closed framework.
While I don't disagree that there is something nifty about HTML/CSS/JS apps, I think we've all seen that this is not enough. Remember, first iPhone was in the same position - no SDK, just "widgets" and that didn't exactly fly with the developers. As somebody who's developed some widgets, I can say that there just isn't enough to go on in JavaScript to create full-powered apps, such as the ones available on iPhone now.
More importantly, in regards to this:
"any average web developer will be able to immediately pump out an app without breaking open a iPhone SDK tome."
Any average web developer can pump out a widget for iPhone, afaik, so I would disagree that this is an advantage that the Palm Pre has.
But Apple did it first, that counts for a lot. Palm's UI looks awesome, but it wouldn't be as cool if Apple didn't pave the way a bit. Not taking anything away, they did a much better job at building off of Apple's innovation than RIM did with the Storm (the phone I currently have - forced to stick with BlackBerry for work).
I agree. I'm extremely happy that Palm is back in the game. However you can't count apple out, the current iPhone is still 2 year old technology, and I expect the new incarnation to blow everything out of the water.
Apple is swimming in money. You really can't count them off. On the bright side (for Palm), Microsoft is swimming in money too and they accomplished little more than licensing a sub-par Windows CE thing to just about every maker of quasismartphones and crushing Palm in the process.
Never forget Palm owned the PDA market after crushing Apple out of it and created the smartphone market with the first Treos. They did a lot of things wrong, but with adequate funding and adequate brains, they can do a lot.
I think it took an iPhone for the other guys to get innovative like this. I really like this interface, though unfortunately it'll take more than that to dethrone the iPhone; though I don't think anyone can be sure until they've actually used it.
What he writes sounds good actually. I hope very much that he is right, because I couldn't yet bring myself to buy an iPhone, but there are no real alternatives yet, either.
It certainly sounds good enough, and I'm stuck on Sprint, so I think this will be my phone unless an interesting Android phone hits around the same time.
Palm hardware has always been "organization pr0n," which only appeals to a small subset.
The iPhone is seen as cool; it is the most desirable phone. People are bending over backwards to afford one (the most iPhone growth over the past 2 quarters has been in low-middle and low class income groups). Apple paved the way with iPods.
I think Palm will have a very hard time selling the Pre to people outside the geeky / careering groups where orgpr0n still appeals.
Even if the user experience is better, the market hasn't been conditioned fr it.
And if webOS is basically web-based, that means that all of Palm's apps will be available on the iPhone, but none of the iPhone's apps will be available on the Palm Pre. Not exactly a winning proposition.
Well done for getting the design close to Apple's standards (though they had to poach a team of Apple people to do that, all the way down to the packaging that looks just like Apple's), but being a second fiddle won't win this war...
This is not to say that it won't be successful. This Pre is clearly a slick piece of kit. But it won't be anywhere as successful as the iPhone, and certainly won't do "better" than the iPhone.