Now if only the US (and others) would get their act together and build out a backup system to GNSS. China, for example, has built out an eLoran system:
The main principle of celestial navigation is pretty easy to visualize.
Pick a celestial body that's in your sky right now, like the Sun. At any given time, the Sun is directly over a single point on the globe (the GP, or Geographic Position). So if you measure the Sun as being directly over your head, you know where you are exactly on the globe, after consulting your clock and almanac.
But, if you measure the Sun at a non-overhead angle, then you and everyone else with that same measurement must be on a circle whose centre is the Sun's GP. (Visualize the circle as the edge of a flashlight beam being pointed directly downward at the GP.) The rest of celestial navigation is refinements to figure out where you are on that circle.
The USA who just threatened to invade a few NATO allies? People working with USA for the next few years seems pretty foolhardy. Surely everyone else in NATO needs to be getting together and building it defense system that exclude USA.
For (e.g.) eLoran, each chain is independent of every other chain. So the network chain(s) run in the EU are not dependent on the chains in US/CA, are not dependent on the chains in Russia, or the Middle East:
I'm pretty sure the threatened invasions are just distractions to change the conversation from the H1B debacle.
If for no other reason than Canada is a country a lot of Americans actually care about (many have relatives there), and without a formal declaration of war congress could step in at any time and declare the whole thing illegal, enabling the military to refuse orders relevant to the invasion.
But as an American who has been a little sick of Europe mooching off of our military overwatch (see various European nations running out of bombs during the Libya campaign), I'm all for an independent European military command with independent capacity. The Cold War is over, the Russian tank hordes that once threatened to roll across Western Europe haven't managed to roll halfway across Ukraine with even reluctant, intermittent, indirect western support. We don't need to be under some monolithic military command anymore, Europe does not (or at least should not) need US strategic overwatch to fend off Russia.
As for the "European militarization has historically led to world wars" argument, the UK, France, and Russia all have nukes. Germany could probably build a few in a long weekend if sufficiently motivated. We aren't going to see a WWI or WWII rematch unless the AI "revolution" actually turns out to be more than smoke and mirrors for dumb money and enables perfect missile defense or something.
So yeah, please get an ex-US NATO off the ground so we can focus on China.
> So yeah, please get an ex-US NATO off the ground so we can focus on China.
If the US does not care about its European allies, it no longer has the economic power to "focus on China". From an European perspective, China is far away and not particularly threatening. If there are no specific reasons to support the US, it's better to not take sides and trade with both sides.
BRICS is already a serious challenge to the Western hegemony. If the US thinks that "the West" has no longer a reason to exist, it will be seriously outnumbered by those who don't share its ambitions.
> BRICS is already a serious challenge to the Western hegemony.
A semi-joke-y observation:
> Pretty straightforward really. You combine Brazil's history of monetary stability, with Russia's respect for property rights, India's domestic tranquility, China's financial transparency, and South Africa's investment opportunities - and hey presto, you've got a new global money.
If the 'BRICS currency' is made up of only a small group, then it's not going to be useful, especially the restrictive countries that are in the name.
But if you expand it, sure it could become more useful, but then you've got competing interests and desires and a coördination problem on policy and such.
Further: I've yet to see an explanation of how this thing will actually work. Does each country given up their own currency, Euro-style? Is there a 'theoretical currency' that everyone pegs their own to? What are the consequences for de-pegging (if any)? Are bonds issued in BRICS or the country's own currency?
This European perspective is one of the reasons that many developing countries outside of Europe didn't condemn Russia's invasion of Ukraine. As India's External Affairs Minister had remarked, "Europe has to grow out of the mindset that Europe's problems are the world's problems, but the world's problems are not Europe's problems."
BRICS is a total joke. Some of the member countries have taken limited unilateral actions to challenge Western hegemony but BRICS as a group has never taken any meaningful coordinated action and never will. India won't go along with anything that benefits China. South Africa is a failed state. Brazil has no global ambitions. And the Russian Empire is bleeding to death in Ukraine; even if they eventually "win" their ability to challenge us has disintegrated.
BRICS is not supposed to be a coordinated power. It's a tool for creating the multipolar world order Putin has been dreaming of for decades. A world where the US is just one power among many and the dollar just one currency among many.
And the best way to achieve that is creating a wedge between the US and its allies.
My impression is the US has pretty consistently tried to dissuade the EU from developing any kind of capable military organisation and to instead do it as part of NATO.
Although I have to assume that with Trump as president for a second time a lot of people in europe are going to have to worry that the US can't be relied on in the way it could in the past so I think you might get your wish.
> and without a formal declaration of war congress could step in at any time and declare the whole thing illegal, enabling the military to refuse orders relevant to the invasion.
I’m pretty sure that war requires congressional approval BEFORE an invasion full stop. Congress in recent history has been fairly cavalier about letting the executive launch military action and looking the other way, but it’s not actually supposed to work this way.
> The Cold War is over, the Russian tank hordes that once threatened to roll across Western Europe haven't managed to roll halfway across Ukraine with even reluctant, intermittent, indirect western support
This is a gross mischaracterization of the situation that significantly underplays what actually happened I think. Without what Biden did right before the war saying “it’s going to happen” and mustering broad domestic and international support as well as using sanctions to freeze Russian assets and use them to pay Ukraine for reparations, Ukraine wouldn’t exist today.
We’re talking about $70B of military HW and $23B in terms of economic and humanitarian aid and another ~87B for the Ukrainian government to keep the lights on. That’s from the US alone. The international community has also contributed another $100B.
> We aren't going to see a WWI or WWII rematch unless the AI "revolution" actually turns out to be more than smoke and mirrors for dumb money and enables perfect missile defense or something.
It’s a slower burn. Putin isn’t going to try to take everything at once. It’s the Hitler annexation strategy over a longer time period. A little Georgia here, a little Crimea there, now it’s the entirety of Ukraine. Partly because his country is weaker but also because war is more expensive to prosecute than 100 years ago due to technology and the resistance is much better prepared for such an attempt.
Where do you think Eastern and Western European civilians will flee if any of those countries is drawn into conflict with Russia? Conflict forces desperate immigration which then creates anti-immigration counter responses in domestic populations here in the US.
China is important but what are we going to do there? Do you think we’re going to successfully defend an invasion of Taiwan when it happens? Cause that’s going to be their first military action. And if people are complaining about supporting Ukraine, how do you think they’ll fair regarding Chinese nationalists?
Finally, I’m pretty sure the troops and equipment we need there are also fairly different. If China is delivering huge numbers of land troops to Taiwan in the first place I’d say the battle is very lost. It’s going to be a sea/land siege so if the US gets directly involved it’ll be a meeting of the navies.
The question was “Greenland and Panama” and the answer was “I wouldn’t rule anything out”. It requires a pretty hard squint to convert that into a threat “to invade a few NATO allies”. This sort of intentional misunderstanding of an exaggeration does so much more harm than good.
A western defense system that excludes the USA is naive at best.
If these countries were our allies the answer would be “I have no idea why you would even be thinking that question”, not “we won’t rule anything out”.
Not ruling anything out is not a threat. Panama is not a NATO country. One is not a few. ‘Military options’ is not synonymous with invasion. “Invading” is a funny term for an area currently occupied by several US major military bases. The list continues.
I hate to sound snarky, and I mean this genuinely, but forcing people to defend someone is not a way to generate allies. A decade of “what he actually said was” is enough to turn even the most strident progressives towards the middle at least.
> Now if only the US (and others) would get their act together and build out a backup system to GNSS. China, for example, has built out an eLoran system:
What prevents other countries from using these other systems?
> They are moving towards quantum navigation (esp subs)
How does that help the merchant marine that is part of the logistical supply chain? Are container ships going to get this quantum nav boxes too? The US pays airlines a retainer to be a reserve fleet [1]: will they get these boxes as well in case of emergency?
What happens to all the civilian infrastructure that need navigation and timing signals?
Considering only the "military" ramifications of GNSS disruption is myopic.
* https://www.npr.org/2016/02/22/467210492/u-s-navy-brings-bac...
Now if only the US (and others) would get their act together and build out a backup system to GNSS. China, for example, has built out an eLoran system:
* https://rntfnd.org/2024/10/03/china-completes-national-elora...
An old USAF video explaining how the theory works (it assumes a geocentric worldview: the Earth is the centre of the universe (but it's not flat :)):
* https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=UV1V9-nnaAs