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Good example of everything that can wrong with a prediction market if left unchecked. Don't like that Waymo broke your prediction? Fine just move your goalposts. Like that prediction came true but on the wrong timeframe? Just move the goal posts.

Glad Polymarket (and other related markets) exist so they can put actual goal posts in place with mechanisms that require certain outcomes in order to finalize on a prediction result.




Well said, shows even the most accomplished humans have the same biases as the rest of us when not held accountable


Polymarket suffers from the same problem. This market https://polymarket.com/event/ethereum-etf-approved-by-may-31... was resolved in an extremely contentious way.


> Glad Polymarket (and other related markets) exist so

Polymarket is a great way to incentive people into making their predictions happen, with all clandestine tools at their disposal, which is definitely not what you want for your society generally.




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