There's not too much fake origin stuff from Vietnam to US, which is the largest SEA country exporting to US.
"However, new research from Harvard Business School and Duke University paints a more nuanced picture — rerouting appears to be lower than is imagined.
While trade rerouting through Vietnam does occur, its scale appears far smaller than previously thought. The study found that in 2021, about 16.1 per cent of Vietnamese exports to the US — roughly US$15.5 billion — could be classified as potential rerouting when analysed at the product level. But when the researchers examined individual firms — tracking specific products flowing from China through Vietnam to the US — the figure fell to just 1.8 per cent, or US$1.7 billion."
Of the items that are rerouted, does Vietnam (or other similar countries) tend to move up the value chain over time? Or do the supply chains just stay as they are.
I suspect, possibly hopefully, that over time the "rerouting" countries would evolve from simple assembly/repackaging to sourcing more granular pieces of the manufacturing process from within their own borders. How fast that might happen is another question.
If anyone has any sources on this I would love to read more about it, I'm just not sure how to find them.
"However, new research from Harvard Business School and Duke University paints a more nuanced picture — rerouting appears to be lower than is imagined.
While trade rerouting through Vietnam does occur, its scale appears far smaller than previously thought. The study found that in 2021, about 16.1 per cent of Vietnamese exports to the US — roughly US$15.5 billion — could be classified as potential rerouting when analysed at the product level. But when the researchers examined individual firms — tracking specific products flowing from China through Vietnam to the US — the figure fell to just 1.8 per cent, or US$1.7 billion."
https://fulcrum.sg/vietnam-china-and-rerouting-when-percepti...