I can't trust that number if it comes from Waymo.com. I'd need to see it from an...

zurfer · 2024-12-20T09:41:20 1734687680

The authors are from:

a Swiss Reinsurance Company, Ltd, Switzerland

b Zardini Lab (research affiliate), Massachusetts Institute of Technology, USA

c Autonomous Systems Laboratory (research affiliate), Stanford University, USA

d Waymo LLC, USA

e Casualty Actuarial Society, USA

ddalex · 2024-12-20T09:59:15 1734688755

Swiss Re is the actual thing when it comes to actuarial tables and statistics.

richardw · 2024-12-20T10:04:48 1734689088

And would be very motivated to know the correct numbers in this case.

passwordoops · 2024-12-20T10:48:08 1734691688

So not independent. And published as a white paper on Waymo's website. And only addresses the collaboration between Waymo and the insurance company, no mention of who funded the academics. Pretty sure if you dig deep enough, Swiss Re is somehow a Waymo investor.

I'd trust this more if Waymo had a direct pipeline to an anonymized public repository of their complete data set for independent analysis

suddenlybananas · 2024-12-20T09:57:55 1734688675

So you can't really trust it due to the obvious conflict of interest.

hnaccount_rng · 2024-12-20T13:03:33 1734699813

I mean.. I get that for the Waymo guys. But the SwissRE ones? Seriously? Who _should_ do that evaluation? You will necessarily have Waymo co-authors. They have to provide the data. They are the only ones who have that..

vineyardmike · 2024-12-20T10:07:16 1734689236

Most of this data they publish to the Government for legal reasons. Sure they could lie to the Government, but ask Cruise how well that went.

Anecdotally, I see Waymos around town, and they are very clearly driving in a slower, safer, more cautious manner. a 92% reduction seems very plausible.