> Maybe there's something else going on we don't know yet.
We know whats going on, the world was just focused elsewhere when this all started and suddenly spiraled.
Hay'at Tahrir al-Sham launched a run of the mill offensive on November 27 in retaliation to SAA attacks and it turned out to be so successful that the Kurdish SDF launched its own offensive on November 29 to take advantage of the situation. Within a week almost every rebel group joined in, the SAA lines of defense broke down, and Russian/Iranian/Hezbollah support disintegrated and evacuated from the country.
I wouldn’t be surprised if some intelligence agencies greased the wheels here but this was mostly dominoes suddenly falling thanks to conflicts in Ukraine and the Middle East sapping military resources and a single spark lighting the powder keg.
Plus Hezbollah has been beheaded and Iran attacked by Israel and Russia over-extended by its invasion of Ukraine.
Turkey has also been involved in this because they don't want the Kurds to have a state, but HTS seems to have managed to form a coalition for now.
There was also reports of US strafing attacks on columns of some SAA forces (and possibly IRGC) but that seems to have disappeared in the rapid events.
The existing government is trying to stay relevant, the current PM is in Damascus and is promising to work with whoever forms the new leadership. That might just be because he didn't escape and wants to stay out of jail.
Israel (and Russia) have been rumoured to have tried to destroy all the stocks of chemical and other weapons.
Russia will be desperate to hang on to its naval base at Tartus, but that seems to be wishful thinking, but maybe it can make a deal.
My first thought was can't they just send a couple or so aircraft carrier groups into the Mediterranean and adequately project power into Africa from them...then I looked up Russia's aircraft carriers.
They only have one, which has been having problems and has been out of service since around 2018, with repair being hampered by accidents and embezzlement. It was supposed to finally get back in service this year but that doesn't seem likely.
We know whats going on, the world was just focused elsewhere when this all started and suddenly spiraled.
Hay'at Tahrir al-Sham launched a run of the mill offensive on November 27 in retaliation to SAA attacks and it turned out to be so successful that the Kurdish SDF launched its own offensive on November 29 to take advantage of the situation. Within a week almost every rebel group joined in, the SAA lines of defense broke down, and Russian/Iranian/Hezbollah support disintegrated and evacuated from the country.
I wouldn’t be surprised if some intelligence agencies greased the wheels here but this was mostly dominoes suddenly falling thanks to conflicts in Ukraine and the Middle East sapping military resources and a single spark lighting the powder keg.