It's already been settled that the trump dossier from 2016 was a work of fiction.
Why did Putin take crimea under Obama's watch, parts of Ukraine under Biden's watch, but then not make any huge moves like those while his "asset" was in the white house?
Because he needed all that time (2014-2022) to build up his forces and cash reserves.
Also, he needed a green light. Which was provided in the form of the chaotic Afghanistan pullout in 2021. Not that he was counting on it -- but once it went through, it seems very likely that tipped the scales in his mind in favor of deciding to actually go through with the full-scale invasion in 2022.
Doubtful. He needed another 8 years after an annexing Crimea to build up the Russian army? Why would he need cash reserves if he has a toadie in the white house?
Imagine how quickly ukriane would have collapsed if the US was not providing support, and the US was preventing European nations from providing support. And then imagine how well off Russia would be if there were no sanctions placed on it by America. All in all your point doesn't make sense. You don't get an asset sitting in the oval office and then not use them.
You're saying Russia couldn't have invaded Ukraine successfully in 2018, if the US and Europe were not providing support, and no sanctions were levied on Russia?
You're saying Russia couldn't have invaded Ukraine successfully in 2018
They didn't invade successfully in 2022, either. Meaning they were never able to invade successfully at any year before that. The whole war is a gigantic delusion for them, remember.
But as for evidence that they needed about 7-8 years to build their resources to a point where its regime thought they could invade successfully:
One of the pieces of evidence in favor of this view is the graph of the CBRF's (that's the Central Bank of Russia) holdings of foreign cash reserves, over the past 20 years. It shows oscillation or decline up until 2014, and then from 2014-2022, steady increases each year, resulting in a net increase from about $100b to $300b by 2022.
Military analyst say that Russia engaged in similar purchasing patterns internally (building up its reserves of shells and missile stocks, for example).
You're ignoring half of what I'm saying. In 2022, they had to deal with the US and Europe providing aid and arms to Ukraine, and sanctions levied on Russia, because they didn't have their stooge in the White House.
If they invaded in 2018, they wouldn't have had to deal with any of those things. That is, if Trump actually is a Russian agent. So why did they wait until the situation was much worse for them in order to invade?
> In 2022, they had to deal with the US and Europe providing aid and arms to Ukraine, and sanctions levied on Russia
On top of what the GP listed, there was also the post-pandemic uncertainty, soaring inflation and increase in the support of far-right/isolationist politicians in Europe. The Russians probably expected a slow start from them and a quick takeover of Kyiv[0], which would likely mean game over for a big chunk (if not all) of Ukraine. To be fair, they almost succeeded: it came down to the single battle that saved Kyiv from a quick occupation[1].
Last (but not least), there was the Putin's isolation during the pandemic when he might have read too much of Russian fascism philosophers'[2]. To me, the open all-out invasion at that time seemed very much out of his style as he had always preferred covert probing and sabotage before that.
Its also been widely reported that when Trump first met Putin he said if he invaded Ukraine, he would turn Moscow and several other cities into a parking lot. Trump in several interviews has said he warned Putin not to do it, that he would pay a very, very heavy cost and he would see to it that he would.
This is all Trump had to do.
He was able to leverage the media's reporting on him that he was reckless, dangerous and prone to rash behavior and they were convinced he was going to start WWIII with? Yeap, you guessed it, the Russians. Putin believed what the media were reporting because Trump himself had verbally warned him.
He didn't need forces and cash. He did what OP recommended, he threatened Putin with force and Putin complied and just waited out Trump. It was a gift that Biden was elected in 2020 and if you go through the news reports, literally months after Biden was elected, Russia started massing troops on the border and readying their troops to invade. Its a strange coincidence that they didn't invade in the four years Trump was in office. He leaves and less than a year later, Russia is preparing to invade? C'mon man.
Your timeline is completely wrong.
- Biden's inauguration took place on January 2021.
- The Russians were amassing troops by December of 2021 (less than a year after he took office).
- The Afghan pullout wasn't until the Summer of 2021
- The Russian officially invaded in February of 2022
The green light wasn't needing forces and cash built up, it was Trump leaving office. The Afghan pullout had no effect on when they were going to invade since they were already massing troops and air support to the border regions where they finally launched their invasion from. Its not like the Russians decided to invade during the Afghan disaster as you insinuated, the invasion plans were already established by then.
Again, the tipping point was Trump leaving office.
He said if he invaded Ukraine, he would turn Moscow and several other cities into a parking lot.
Which means it's a lie.
This is extremely bellicose language, and completely inconsistent with Trump's statements and general deportment towards Putin in all other respects. We have video footage of that meeting - you can see both men completely at ease with each other, and Putin positively smiling. That's not the vibe you get when one of the two men had just told (or was about to tell) the other that they were considering turning their major cities into parking lots.
If he actually said anything at all to Putin about it, most likely it was quite different (something on the order of "Don't escalate the situation in Ukraine, that will have serious negative consequences"). But that's too boring for his voting public. So (with no transcript available for anyone to fact-check) he pulled a statement out his hind quarters ("turn Moscow into a parking lot") that he thought his own people would prefer that he said.
Because that's how he rolls.
The Afghan pullout had no effect on when they were going to invade since they were already massing troops and air support to the border regions where they finally launched their invasion from.
Let's go over the chronology that you yourself just provided:
The Afghan pullout wasn't until the Summer of 2021
The Russians were amassing troops by December of 2021
You clearly don't understand the psychology of dictators or people who are in positions of extreme power. The only language they know is that kind of direct, "bellicose" language as you refer to it.
Trump understood this and simply used the same language and approach to Putin.
Of course he wouldn't do it. If you know anything about Trump, he's the most anti-war president we've ever had. He was very outspoken against both Iraq invasions, against the Afghan invasions and now that he's be elected again, has said he will end the Ukrainian conflict and the conflict in Israel. He also pulled out most of our military out of the middle east when he was in office.
You would've thought the millions of Liberals who were against any wars in the middle east would be ecstatic to have him in office. Or have you already forgotten all the "No war for oil!!" and "Bush lied, people died!" bumper stickers and slogans the media and Liberals continually chanted during those years??
But it doesn't count because Trump is a Republican? Now there's some pro level hubris.
“They're all saying oh he's a nuclear power, it's like they're afraid of him,” Trump said in a recording of the phone conversation with Daly. “You know, he was a friend of mine, I got along great with him. I say, Vladimir, if you do it, we're hitting Moscow. We're going to hit Moscow. And he sort of believed me like 5 per cent, 10 per cent - that's all you need.”
He's also said the same thing in several interview. That he told Putin he would make it very difficult to take Ukraine and it cost them economically and militarily. You can infer that meant could mean several things depending on your point of view.
> Its also been widely reported that when Trump first met Putin he said if he invaded Ukraine, he would turn Moscow and several other cities into a parking lot.
Yeah. Trump talks a lot. Like his best friend, Melon.
Trump says that he wants to finish "fundamentally reevaluating NATO's purpose and NATO's mission", and "the greatest threat to Western Civilization today is not Russia. [...] It's the Marxists who would have us become a Godless nation worshipping at the altar of race, and gender, and environment." I take that as a pretty clear stance that he wants to help Russia this term by dismantling or weakening NATO and creating too much infighting within America to worry about defending allies from Russia
