So, we have a bunch of identical-looking options and cannot know which pays out better beforehand. It sounds to me like we should apply the Multi-Armed Bandit algorithm to the problem.
I think the truth of it is just that (and few people will admit to this) it's better to be a VC. They're diversified. Some fail out and never get rich, but they get to play more chances.
There's nothing generally wrong with not getting rich, but there are certain things people only do in order to get rich, and VC-istan startup life is one of them. If you're a writer and you make $100,000 per year mid-career, you're kicking ass, because most people never get anywhere near that point. If you're a stock trader or VC-istan denizen (whether engineer or founder) and that's where you are mid-career, you're a fuckup.
Actually, I'm simplifying quite a bit. Most people in VC-istan don't necessarily want to get rich personally in the same way that traders do, but they want to become the social equals of the VCs and established founders. They want their ideas to be taken seriously, and that unfortunately requires social status. So there is a bit of difference. A derivatives trader who makes $25 million and retires could give fuck-all about social status, whereas most VC-istan types would rather have a mediocre financial outcome if it got them access and status. They'd rather be at $2 million net worth with the contacts to try another "game changer" startup than $25m without it. Still, though few people will admit this, VC is a better life. You already have status and access, and if you want to start a company as a Real Founder, you can do that any time you wish.