All these sort of statements assume growth is linear without justification, its more likely exponential. ie it took 2 years to get here, so it will take 2 more to get to this point, but in reality it may be 100 years to get to the next point. No one knows, and if in 2 years it is able to write that sort of code then the singularity is very close indeed.
Actually, i think it will take less than 2 years. I've been using Aider + Claude 3.5 Sonnet almost daily for a long time and the progress is very fast. We will see.
