They’ve launched an innovation that the existing players in the industry are heavily motivated to beat: It’s not [truly] disruptive. History speaks pretty loudly on that, that the probability of success is going to be limited.
This could still very well be true. One possible 20-year-out future is that wearable computing has completely replaced handheld devices (or indeed most devices of any kind). The era of touchscreen smartphones will be looked back on fondly as a strange transitional blip.
Now, the likeliness of this scenario is a totally different discussion. But calling the game 5 years in feels a bit premature.
(Perhaps the massive wealth Apple has accumulated in the iPhone/iPad era will cement their ability to dominate all future tech. But maybe not, in a post-Jobs environment...)
They’ve launched an innovation that the existing players in the industry are heavily motivated to beat: It’s not [truly] disruptive. History speaks pretty loudly on that, that the probability of success is going to be limited.
This could still very well be true. One possible 20-year-out future is that wearable computing has completely replaced handheld devices (or indeed most devices of any kind). The era of touchscreen smartphones will be looked back on fondly as a strange transitional blip.
Now, the likeliness of this scenario is a totally different discussion. But calling the game 5 years in feels a bit premature.
(Perhaps the massive wealth Apple has accumulated in the iPhone/iPad era will cement their ability to dominate all future tech. But maybe not, in a post-Jobs environment...)