Right, ok fair. The handling of intermediate distributions when combining factors is straightforward math but I have found it almost impossible to have a coherent conversation about that with many people, especially tech leaders. They want to talk about outcomes so they collapse all the intermediates into if/else decision trees and then get unhappy when the final probability doesn’t match their intuition.

And these are smart people… I just think most people generally struggle with contingent probability.

Do have links to this type of treatment of Drake?