> At the current rate of improvement it will be quite good within a year and in two or three I could see it actually reaching the point where it could operate unsupervised.
That’s not a reasonable assumption. You can’t just extrapolate “software rate of improvement”, that’s not how it works.
The timing of the rate of improvement increasing corresponds with finishing their switch to end-to-end machine learning. ML does have scaling laws actually.
Tesla collects their own data, builds their own training clusters with both Nvidia hardware and their own custom hardware, and deploys their own custom inference hardware in the cars. There is no obstacle to them scaling up massively in all dimensions, which basically guarantees significant progress. Obviously you can disagree about whether that progress will be enough, but based on the evidence I see from using it, I think it will be.
That’s not a reasonable assumption. You can’t just extrapolate “software rate of improvement”, that’s not how it works.