Ideas/products with excessive speculation have failed in the past. Therefore, this product will fail.
I disagree with that. It suffers from survivor bias (or actually non-survivor bias). Mackey doesn't discuss ideas with excessive speculation that ultimately succeed. The internet in the 1990s and the California gold rush both had excessive speculation, but ended up being successful... so no one refers to them as 'extraordinary delusions'.
Ideas/products with excessive speculation have failed in the past. Therefore, this product will fail.
I disagree with that. It suffers from survivor bias (or actually non-survivor bias). Mackey doesn't discuss ideas with excessive speculation that ultimately succeed. The internet in the 1990s and the California gold rush both had excessive speculation, but ended up being successful... so no one refers to them as 'extraordinary delusions'.