To be fair (and like others have said re: Amazon), this sounds pretty particular to a specific team. In other teams, it's pretty clear what you have to do in order to get promoted. I overheard from some employees that at the last meeting they had on the subject, management was very straightforward, saying that they had X spots available and Y people to consider. If you did the right things, they would consider you, and promote the best X people. I think this approach is about as good as it can be in a large org.