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This is my pet peeve with Jira culture. Estimates are always exact. You were forced to estimate 15±0 instead of 1-50 which would be a true reflection of your uncertainty.

I have yet to see a project management tool that even lets you write down uncertainty.




I use my own Excel sheet that calculates project risk from each task using a formula based on:

Estimated hours, in whole hour increments (i.e. 1 hour is the minimum allowed estimate). Usually you’d then multiply the engineering estimate by 3 to get something more realistic.

Uncertainty of the estimate, with a scale of 1 to 3, where 1 is “I’ve done this before and have a very good idea of how long it takes” and 3 is “I have no idea and making my best guess”

Impact to the project if it doesn’t get done in time on a scale of 1 to 3, where 1 is a small impact and 3 is high

Then the Exposure which is simply Uncertainty * Impact.

This method highlights the most critical areas so at least people can get an idea of when we’re entering into uncharted waters and to expect more possible delays.

An issue still unaddressed is that when you estimate 40 hours for something, management thinks “ok, great, it will be done in one week”, and then proceed to bury you in emails and meetings completely unrelated to the project.


Care to share the sheet? It sounds like it uses a good mix of parameters.


IIRC LiquidPlanner models uncertainty.




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