I don't think the GA market will ever grow that large though - not without substantial effort to make compliance with all the regulations effortless.
You need more pilots, so making it easier to navigate and comply with Parts 61/141/142, with 67/68.
You need more aerodromes; Part 139.
You need more aircraft, that's Parts 21, 23, 33, 35, 45 and maybe 34, 36 and 39 too.
You need more mechanics; Part 66 / 147.
You need more maintenance facilities, Part 21, 39, 43, 145.
There's maybe 50,000 active GA pilots (PPL or LSA) doing it for pleasure regularly? The rest are time building for the airlines, and same for mechanics.
To get that 50k to 500k to 5M actual people ... I think an affordable aircraft is probably the easiest part. Maybe it'll get people interested? Though you can already buy factory-built LSA's for $300k that'll do 150kts (see Risen); Europe already has a booming LSA scene ... but it hasn't really resulted in more people flying, not as far as I can tell.
I don't think an aircraft is the missing link, but I can't express how much I'd love to be proven wrong!
I haven’t done any piloting. If I could convert a 250 mile trip from a 5 hour drive to a 90 minute flight, I would take my family of 4 to many more places. I’d be willing to invest several months in the requisite training.
Currently I won’t do that at all because (1) way too dangerous, (2) way too expensive, (3) not obvious how to start.
Honestly, I’d love a subscription model for this. I’d pay an initial fee for training. Certify me when I’m safe. Then let me pay to get the airplane and fuel for a specific journey. Handle all the maintenance for me. Check my work on planning. Have a real expert available on integrated speed dial to talk me through anything complicated.
If this winds up being fun and fast, I’m willing to pay more for it. The specific trip I’m looking at would cost $800 to fly with a standard airline. I’d pay double that to self-fly. The premium gets me convenience (I control the exact departure time, less airport hassle) and adventure (flying!).
We are exploring how to make a subscription model work. It's not possible in an experimental category airplane, but our future models where they can be rented (legally due to FAA requirements) will make that possible.
You need more pilots, so making it easier to navigate and comply with Parts 61/141/142, with 67/68.
You need more aerodromes; Part 139.
You need more aircraft, that's Parts 21, 23, 33, 35, 45 and maybe 34, 36 and 39 too.
You need more mechanics; Part 66 / 147.
You need more maintenance facilities, Part 21, 39, 43, 145.
There's maybe 50,000 active GA pilots (PPL or LSA) doing it for pleasure regularly? The rest are time building for the airlines, and same for mechanics.
To get that 50k to 500k to 5M actual people ... I think an affordable aircraft is probably the easiest part. Maybe it'll get people interested? Though you can already buy factory-built LSA's for $300k that'll do 150kts (see Risen); Europe already has a booming LSA scene ... but it hasn't really resulted in more people flying, not as far as I can tell.
I don't think an aircraft is the missing link, but I can't express how much I'd love to be proven wrong!