A slight decrease is likely (~-5%). Output gains in cold regions are not expected to match losses from regions that will get too dry/hot, unless artificial irrigation use expands, putting further strain in water resources:
> Annual food caloric production is the product of caloric yield, cropping
frequency (CF, number of production seasons per year) and cropland
area. Existing studies have largely focused on crop yield, whereas how CF
responds to climate change remains poorly understood. Here, we evaluate
the global climate sensitivity of caloric yields and CF at national scale. We
find a robust negative association between warming and both caloric yield
and CF. By the 2050s, projected CF increases in cold regions are offset by
larger decreases in warm regions, resulting in a net global CF reduction
(−4.2 ± 2.5% in high emission scenario), suggesting that climate-driven
decline in CF will exacerbate crop production loss and not provide climate
adaptation alone. Although irrigation is effective in offsetting the projected
production loss, irrigation areas have to be expanded by >5% in warm
regions to fully offset climate-induced production losses by the 2050s.
Control F precipitation not sure why my mobile Safari won’t let me copy paste, but they specifically say that they don’t count for precipitation changes because it’s too complicated and in the future they might try doing that…
> Annual food caloric production is the product of caloric yield, cropping frequency (CF, number of production seasons per year) and cropland area. Existing studies have largely focused on crop yield, whereas how CF responds to climate change remains poorly understood. Here, we evaluate the global climate sensitivity of caloric yields and CF at national scale. We find a robust negative association between warming and both caloric yield and CF. By the 2050s, projected CF increases in cold regions are offset by larger decreases in warm regions, resulting in a net global CF reduction (−4.2 ± 2.5% in high emission scenario), suggesting that climate-driven decline in CF will exacerbate crop production loss and not provide climate adaptation alone. Although irrigation is effective in offsetting the projected production loss, irrigation areas have to be expanded by >5% in warm regions to fully offset climate-induced production losses by the 2050s.
Source: https://par.nsf.gov/servlets/purl/10423092