> “There was a dot-com bubble, according to Goldman Sachs, because prices went up and prices went down. According to me, internet traffic didn’t go down at all.”
An idea from macro investing [1] that has stuck with me: don't overindex on the last crisis (or watershed moment more generally). All throughout the 2010s a lot of investors were implicitly assuming that if another crisis hit, it would look like 2008. The 2020 crisis proved to unfold in a very different ways than 2008, at least in terms of where you were best off putting your money.
Which brings me back to the Khosla quote from the start of this comment. A lot of people seem to be overindexing on the dot-com boom, assuming that this AI summer will pan out the same way.
I am not making a directional call here. All I'm suggesting is to stay humble about this trite yet profound truth: the future often unfolds in unexpected ways.
An idea from macro investing [1] that has stuck with me: don't overindex on the last crisis (or watershed moment more generally). All throughout the 2010s a lot of investors were implicitly assuming that if another crisis hit, it would look like 2008. The 2020 crisis proved to unfold in a very different ways than 2008, at least in terms of where you were best off putting your money.
Which brings me back to the Khosla quote from the start of this comment. A lot of people seem to be overindexing on the dot-com boom, assuming that this AI summer will pan out the same way.
I am not making a directional call here. All I'm suggesting is to stay humble about this trite yet profound truth: the future often unfolds in unexpected ways.
[1] Shout out to The Macro Tourist