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My point is that the fermi approximation is flawed because HVDC is still extremely expensive to transmit power from places where solar is plentiful to where it’s needed. So there are significant real world implications that make the approximation off probably by an order of magnitude. There’s a lot of solar energy but effectively time and distance shifting it turns out to be extremely difficult and expensive. That’s why solar and wind continue struggling to replace fossil fuels in the grid (modulo places like California, Florida and Texas with abundant sunshine throughout the state) despite the generators themselves being cheaper than ever; all they’ve managed to do is absorb daytime energy growth. It’s something but our absolute fossil fuel consumption in the grid has continued to grow substantially even if as a percentage it managed to stagnate or marginally decrease. Nuclear continues to have far more success at actually replacing fossil fuels in the grid, has meaningfully less land footprint than solar, and while gen iii reactors require some work to maintain safety, it still remains remarkably safe per mwh comparable to solar and gen iv reactors have fail safe designs that don’t carry any of the same maintenance concerns. We gave up on nuclear fission too early and easily due to FUD from the coal industry and it still remains the better path to fix the grid’s contribution to global warming.



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