a) No reuse, so no weight from tiles and fuel for landing, so 10 to 12 Tanker stages.

b) Some reuse, but turnaround takes weeks, so 6 to 8 Tanker stages.

c) Full rapid reuse, so 2 to 3 Tanker stages.

At this point, I am sad to say that a) seems like a possibility to me.

The next question is how many booster stages? Will rapid reuse for boosters be ready by Artemis III, chopsticks and all? I think this might be possible by then.

Artemis III is currently scheduled for no earlier than September 2026. There are factors other than Starship which may push it back, such as the Orion heat shield mini-debacle

Does anyone else want to play the guessing game?

The only thing they have to reuse is the booster. That alone will get them the Artemis 6 contract. Once you have reused the booster, you can do as many reentry tests as you like, even if it is just for fun. For every saved booster, you can do three reentry test flights and still break even.

Then there’s no Starship. Back to the drawing board.

I’m doubtful we get to c before 2030. But b should count as a win, particularly since—in the spirit of Artemis—that’s kit that keeps on giving.

What he said is more concerning than that:

> Right now, we are not resilient to loss of a single tile in most places, as the secondary containment material will probably not survive.

Even one tile lost will probably result in loss of vehicle.

I just wonder how attaching the tiles can be so hard. I would understand if it were the tiles themselves delaminating and the top layer falling off - high temperature ceramics aren't known for strength.

But it appears the tile complete with its steel mount is coming detached from the ship. Just weld it on better? Bolt it on? Design better clips? Use some thermite type reaction to weld it on behind the tile so it never comes off again?

Seems like there's a lot of options to try, so how come they've been having issues for so long?