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>> There are highly profitable companies that nevertheless see their stock price turn around.

This happened with a local sports drink maker. It was branded for kids, more healthy, less sugar then Gatorade and energy drinks. Company took off, went public, stock went through the roof for about two years.

Blue skies, everything coming up roses, lots of articles in the local business mags and websites.

Then their supply chain dried up - a precursor to the pandemic and the founder even said in a startup presentation they were the canary in the coal mine and one of the first businesses in the state to suddenly have their product, packaging, and materials all just evaporate in a matter of weeks. Suddenly they couldn't get product into stores, stores eventually pulled their placement and within three months they were bleeding money horrendously while scrambling to find replacements. Something they were already working on, but soon enough every supplier they'd call had the same answer, they too had no means to ship stuff out and they too were dead in the water.

Then two months later the pandemic hit in full force and it was the death knell for the company. Delisted, and bankrupted, they closed up shop about 3 years after being a "can't lose" stock and company.

My family have all invested heavily in Nvidia and they're making good gains now, but I'm seeing the same thing you are - this can go bust very fast if Nvidia doesn't manage this really well.



Nvidia has been around for along time.


> Nvidia has been around for along time.

So has Cisco: how has their stock price been doing since the late 1990s?

It's not like the Internet has stopped being a thing, and people are still buying Cisco gear, and yet people aren't excited about it anymore.

It's possible for AI/ML to be a thing, for Nvidia to sell gear, and for the stock to go down. There are numerous examples throughout history:

* https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Technological_Revolutions_and_...


And how has Cisco done since the early 1990s? Not so bad, right?

Nobody knows if Nvidia is in the late 1990s or the early 1990s. Based on valuation on P/E they are cheaper than Cisco in late 1990s.


As a gaming and workstation GPU company. That market isn’t available to return to.


Yes, but it does somewhat feel like you missed the point they were trying to make.




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