The fourth order effect is overlooked and it's my biggest short-term concern. In particular the destabilizing of low income countries near the equator in the face of precarious wet bulb temperatures, indirectly leading to the destabilizing of the global north in response to climate refugees fleeing the equator.
I am in Australia and I have said it for many years, if it goes badly, we will welcome refugees with open arms. Those arms being machine guns and explosives.
That we will move into the realm of Lifeboat ethics.
