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[flagged] The Papa Johns closest to The Pentagon is far busier than usual (twitter.com/lbjfancamcoop)
61 points by croes 10 months ago | hide | past | favorite | 85 comments



Spy satellites keep an eye on their parking lots for similar reasons.

The availability of fairly cheap private imagery now enables things like estimating Walmart's quarterly earnings. https://www.npr.org/sections/money/2010/08/19/129298095/with...


My dream of pushing cars into underground tunnels and parking structures now has some financial value!


So, does painting cars on the parking lot qualifies as some kind of securities fraud now? ~


Per Matt Levine, "Everything Everywhere Is Securities Fraud".


Not with my invention of pavement and pebblature paint for cars. Spot this, Sputnik wannabe!


I assume that every major secret service must have webcams pointed at any road in direction of a CIA / NSA facility (and vice versa). With a bit of face recognition you must have fairly valuable data.


I mean, maybe. But both CIA and NSA no doubt are very aware of this possibility and I'm sure keeps very close tabs on anything like this.

But if you are an state actor, I'm sure there are plenty of ways to identify the personnel who work for these agencies. Usually just hanging around at the local lunch places is a good place to start.


The Dutch investigative reporters collective "De Correspondent" did a piece on using publicly shared tracking info from sports app to identify high-ranking defence and intel personnel. Link here (in Dutch unfortunately..): https://decorrespondent.nl/8477/zo-haalden-we-binnen-2-minut...


There is a story that the first gulf war was picked up on by media due to after 5pm pizza deliveries.

For context if you want to go down the rabbit hole: https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=40030106


I remember that from the time -- The Dominos near the White House IIRC.

I was a pizza delivery guy around then, and I remember delivering pizzas to the local base. Mostly barracks, sometimes the Officers' quarters. One time, we had an order that went to a more secured location -- Got buzzed through the fence, around the side, up to the door, and into the man-trap inside the building.

That was past a bunch of signs saying I wasn't supposed to be there. The drivers always joked about 'Top Secret, Pizza Delivery clearance'. We had maps of the base, all the building numbers and everything.

That was all pre 9-11, It's a closed base now.


If you ever want to get a pulse of how busy certain caucuses are on the Hill, I'd recommend monitoring the rush at Bullfeathers (for GOP) and Tune Inn (for DNC)


One day someone in Arlington is going to have a big pizza party and put some countries on high alert.


According to some quick Googling, the average Dominoes franchise daily gross take is around $3,500.

So for approximately the cost of a fully loaded laptop you, too, can set off the "pizza meter" and get people talking.


And the pentagon orders randomized amounts of pizzas every few random days.


The random amounts of pizza would have to be pretty large for "legitimate" pizza surges to hide in the noise!


this is a CLASSIFIED pizza party, speak of it to no one.


They’ll need a lotta pizza to eat their way out of their current situation.


Important to point out this was a couple of days ago (the night Iran launched its attack on Israel).


Right. And this signal was late compared to twitter (where folks figured out from the images the attack sequence and when the missiles/drones would land)


The Pizza Meter Wikipedia article was deleted two weeks ago https://en.wikipedia.org/w/index.php?title=Special:Log&logid...

It was posted to this board as recently as 23 days ago https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=39805067

Here's an archive https://archive.is/9ouXy

This archive explicitly mentions:

>Shortly after Meeks' comments were released, government offices no longer ordered from Domino's branches in Washington, opting to buy pizza at separate times or at different pizza joints.

Indicating that the Pentagon is well aware of monitoring of pizza shops as a way to infer the level of their activity. I therefore posit that this going viral is a hidden form of explicit communication, a signal they are intentionally sending, akin to the Iranians raising a black flag several months ago.


Nah.

The Pentagon is bounded on all sides by busy public highways! Oh, and giant parking lots for Pentagon employees.

Any interested party can simply drive past and count the number of cars in the parking lots. Not a lot of mystery there! I assume countless foreign countries and news organizations do exactly that.

The "Pizza Meter" is a fun... thing. It's a nice lesson on how data can "leak" even if nobody is actually actively disclosing information directly. But the idea of a foreign nation taking the "Pizza Meter" seriously (or, of the USA using it as a signal that might be taken seriously by our adversaries) is not a credible idea.


I've seen people reporting these and others a lot lately, mostly using the Google "how busy is it" graph as this does. Does that really account for the amount of deliveries? I've always assumed when that says it's "busier than usual" it's just using location tracking for people actually being there.


Probably looking up the dominoes is enough to make it "busy".


Yeah. Probably some combination of lookups and/or clickthrus.

I had always assumed it was location tracking data, same as they (mostly?) use for realtime traffic data.

But, now that you mention it, Dominoes is a delivery business. So you'd have to estimate their current volume some other way - a spike in demand won't correlate with an increase of people physically visiting the storefront.


True, but is that what google maps is even saying? I have always understood it to be "phones in this area per hour" or whatever, I have never thought or got the impression it would tell you how busy a delivery place is based off of delivery load. Does anyone have a source that says one way or another? I could see it either way.


I'd love a more knowledgeable answer as well!

We'll probably never get it, though? Seems like one of those algorithmic things Google holds close to its chest.

I would think, though, that if it's going to be meaningful whatsoever for a delivery business... it couldn't rely solely on "phones in this area per hour." But I'm just a random yahoo speculating.


Does the Pentagon not have an in-house, 24-hour canteen? You'd have thought they'd learned their lesson from the whole Gulf War pizza thing.


>Does the Pentagon not have an in-house, 24-hour canteen?

I'm sure they do. But I'm also sure it's not Papa Johns. That garlic sauce is worth a national security incident IMO.


I dont think it would be open after 5pm. It's not the valley, where they have the money to pay for a chef to stay late and have dinner. "Working late" is probably a massive anomaly for your average government employee, cause the pay is shit.


I don't know how accurate Google Maps' information is here, but it seems like all of the shops inside the Pentagon do indeed close early. 5PM for restaurants, and 1:30PM (???) for CVS.

https://maps.app.goo.gl/iCZBTiWQUKSKU1LS9

From everything I've seen, though, it seems like there are 20+ shops inside the Pentagon and GMaps only lists a few, so I don't know how accurate that information is.


Not sure about "staying late"; just have 'em work in shifts...? ¯\_(ツ)_/¯


Leads? Yeh, sure. I'll just check with the boys down at the crime lab...

https://youtu.be/v7acD4q0lp0


They have a whole food court inside.


I love that kind of signal, the type you wouldn't think about at first but then it makes perfect sense once you hear about it.


Agreed, but if you're relying on Papa John's as a signal, you're probably going to find out about missile launches a lot later than you'd like.



True, but getting hit by missiles is an even worse way to find out about pizza delivery issues in your area.


While possibly an interesting signal, what could make it compelling would be a few more points of data. So this particular location is busier than usual. What about the other Papa John's near by? Are they at the "usual" capacity? Or maybe something like the last weekend before taxes are due has everyone doing their taxes, and deciding just to order pizza, instead of making something, or going out. Is this in a residential area? What is the variance in "usual busyness"? Is this a once a month level of unusual busyness? Once a year? Once a decade? Do we have any correlation between busyness at this location and other geopolitical events (say February 2022). Especially, say compared to other events like the Super Bowl.


Maybe it's Mabel's retirement party.


I would love if we cracked down on data harvesting, and I don't particularly care if it's the NSA doing it for opsec reasons.


This pizza joint has been known for a long time among those who follow geopolitics. It's one of many signals.

Also, these signals also help defuse situations because they are effective signals among adversaries that the sides are getting serious.


How do you plan on cracking down on publicly-available data?


"No ordering pizza"? Staff a franchise with cleared employees in the Pentagon?


I read that the Pentagon does have its own in-house franchises explicitly for that reason. I have to assume the signaling in this case is intentional.


I did not have Pentagon intentionally clogs up nearby Papa John's Pizzeria to signal to the Middle East that it is dead serious on my 2024 Bingo card.


No, Papa John's is signaling you're wanting to seem super serious, but everyone in the know knows it's just for show.

When it's Dominos then you know you're fucked.


That's not answering my question! You're changing the scenario from public data to private data.


“Stop contributing to the public data” is a perfectly reasonable way of avoiding it.


I mean, they do kinda do that. Currently there seems to be an Au Bon Pain, a Taco Bell, a CVS Pharmacy, Starbucks, etc.

https://www.latimes.com/archives/la-xpm-2001-aug-03-mn-30116...

Not sure if the employees are cleared, but they are at least screened (and one would assume... monitored?)

https://news.clearancejobs.com/2022/09/26/top-secret-taco-be...

https://maps.app.goo.gl/nyqYWQ7WBDArvdzS9

However, if the hours on Google Maps can be believed, it seems like all of the Pentagon shops close at 5PM eastern. So if you want food after 5PM, perhaps you're still ordering delivery?


do you want godfather's pizza? that's how you get godfather's pizza


[flagged]


to me it seems more like one of those things that an office boss does to make a situation less shitty.

"We're all pulling over-time, so I brought all 12 of us 2 large pizzas. Please, hold the applause."


If I have to stay overnight and my boss has me having to smell Papa John's Id be considerably more upset. Id rather fast.


We did this at my work once, with Papa John's, and threw most of it away because it smelled absolutely sickening. We just chose to not eat... Pretty much any other pizza is better. We've done Domino's a few times and it's pretty good, relatively! Though nearly any local pizza will win.


I would hope if you are working at the DOD on cutting edge stuff you are treated better than pizza after little league games tier crap pizza, but I guess I was wrong, downvoted in spades even. I know DC has decent food. Maybe this pappa johns has security clearance....


I don't really care for Papa John the guy, but if one of his pizzas showed up I'd eat it.


Some peoples tolerance for what they call pizza always surprises me


You're hungry, you eat something, you're not hungry, try again tomorrow.


Gut of steel right there


Working hard to prevent an Iran-Israel war, which the latter will easily win anyway.


>>which the latter will easily win anyway

There would be literally nothing easy about fighting Iran, unless your idea of fighting is just to glass the entire country. Because any kind of conventional warfare with Iran would make Iraq and Afganistan look like kindergarden in comparison. And that's not to say that Iran is some kind of superpower - it's absolutely not. Just that the terrain is extremely difficult, the army is actually decently equipped and trained, and it's a huge and very populous country.


How would they even fight Iran? They don't share a border, and you need an army of at least 500k to even properly man the entire western Iran border(Iran Iraq war was I think 600k on each side when there were actual offensives in the mid 80s, and 200k each side when it was just attrition war).

The only way Israel can have a proper war with Iran is by attacking Hesbollah, but thats a whole different topic.


Probably just air strikes to make a point


The understanding I have of the Israeli military (and I could be very wrong, I haven't made a study of this) is that they tend to be surgical in their operations; so Mossad kills a key general or administrator, or knocks out key infra, etc., etc., rather than a full on conventional war.


Nothing about the last several months implies surgical strikes or key infra being targeted, and heavily leans towards glassing the enemy territory.

Certainly they have that capability, and there's plenty of evidence that they do targeted killings, but that doesn't appear to be their MO when invading someone.


Surgical strikes are easy when your enemy has little ability to intercept them. However, Iran definitely has S-300, and quite possibly also some S-400 by now. Can Israel overwhelm them? How many Israeli planes will be shot down in the process? And how will Israel respond to those losses?


Well as a quick study, look up "where's daddy" and "Lavender" as exposed by (ironically) Israeli media.

Btw, one of the best sources in this conflict is Israeli media. Especially the Hebrew language one.


That makes for some sticky pages in a Soldier of Fortune magazine, but has never once decided a war.


Yeah, Israel can't even control a 25km strip of land on its southern coast. War is never easy.


It's pretty much always better to not get into a war than to win a war.


That's a succinct way to put it. Does anybody have any suggestions for following up on this line of thinking? I wonder what other, maybe technical scenarios, where this might also be true?

It's better for an error message to explain what the end user likely needs to know, rather than you heroically debugging it for them.


Here's a good read that is already very relevant wrt Gaza, and likely will be even more relevant wrt Iran.

https://acoup.blog/2022/10/21/collections-strategic-airpower...


There is already a war or two, just undeclared. Is it really better to let the aggressor keep attacking and killing while you sit and watch it happen thus sending signal to all others how weak you are?


It is impossible to tell if you are referring to Iran or Israel or maybe both.


I was of course referring to US. As Ben Hodges put it yesterday:

"We've got to muster the political will, industrial capacity, economic leverage, and military capability to defeat Russia first in order to isolate/deter Iran and deter China from making a terrible miscalculation."


No reaction to Crimea send clear message to Russia. US let Ukraine happen. No reaction to Iranian drones in Ukraine emboldened Iran resulting in 7the and now 14th. Again no response. Who will try next, NKorea or China?


> the aggressor

Which one are we talking about?

I think this sort of discussion is best left off HN.


If the win is easy, why is the Pentagon worried and why is Bibi trying to sucker us into this conflict?


Even an easy win is expensive.


Israel has admited it blew $1 billion in AD on Friday. AD we seemingly cant build anymore (see Ukr. war).

What fraction of its arsenal do you think Iran used up on Friday? That's the real question. If half, Israel can easily smack Iran with impunity.

What if it was only 5%? Shooting half their stockpile would be pretty stupid, after all.


What does it mean for Israel to win a war against Iran? Do you expect Israel to overthrow the Iranian administration, occupy a country with 10x its population, and then impose some sort of long-lasting stability on hostile territory, in a way they haven't been able to do in much smaller pieces of territory they've been occupying for almost 80 years?


Why would the US want to prevent one of its only allies in the Middle East from crippling a nation on the "Axis of Evil" bingo card?


I hope the incumbent president don't want to accomplish the impossible feat of losing the coming election. Also, given how cranky the unhole trinity of super powers are right now, it might domino into him being the last one.


We need to save weapons for the Taiwan conflict.


prevent? yeah right


The US security apparatus wants to prevent it. They know, win-lose, it'd be disastrous for us.

Bibi, on the other hand, avoids jail time only as long as Ben-Gvir keeps his government propped up. And Gvir wants war.




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