I agree that this is a weak argument. I think a stronger argument is simply to say: every year we see people start independent, bootstrapped businesses. There's no reason to believe the potential here has changed. The only way to include yourself in that set is to try, and never give up.
EDIT: I will say, it may be a powerful story for anybody experiencing self doubt. Different people need different kinds of motivation.
I think the point is that he thought it was too late in 1985, then people thought the same ten years later (1996), then the original article (from 2014) tries to explain how 2014 is not too late either (“the best time is now”).
In other words, it is always easy to think it is too late when looking back. But it is never too late if we try to look forward and imagine the things that have not invented yet and which will be around in 10-20 years time.
Nope. It was obvious to me then, though not my coworkers. Microsoft had already done creditably against Oracle and IBM in come-from-behind situations. The press decided it was time to put Microsoft in its place.
Marc Andreesen said glibly that Windows was nothing more than a poorly debugged set of device drivers. The technical press parroted it without any follow-through. When Microsoft came out with Internet Explorer, new versions of Excel, Word, and IIS, I knew they would win. Because device drivers are hard, nobody wrote them better, and Windows was good enough for millions of customers.
I think Microsofties low-key regarded me as a bit dull, because they believed the media had no agenda. I simply looked at the (public) accomplishments of my much younger coworkers and trusted my own observations.
In the late 90s it was also "obvious" that Apple was about to go bankrupt. The entire dot-com bubble was people who thought it was "obvious" that the early internet was already a winner… and most of those companies failed. When that bubble popped, some people thought it was "obvious" that Amazon would be one of the losers in part thanks to their investment in the (failed) pets.com (not to be confused with the current owners of the same domain).
To me, it's been "obvious" for the last US$2 trillion of market capitalisation growth that Apple's going to face monopoly investigations; it's "obvious" that Facebook is, in a deep fundamental sense, not even capable of being compatible with GDPR; and it was "obvious" to me in 2009 that the first true self-driving car sold to the general public (by the quality standard "doesn't come with a steering wheel and that's fine") would be around 2019 or so.
There's been a few places I've worked with young energetic co-workers (and I have been a young and energetic coder myself), and… in many cases those groups failed to make enough money and disbanded.
One result of a lifetime of not being able to predict the markets is the realisation, a decade ago, that my preferences in many areas are almost anti-correlated with the modal buyer: I like what normal people dislike or even loathe, and dislike or even hate what they prefer.
Just go find some drudgery for a paycheck. Don’t bother saving. You won’t need it.
You never had a shot anyway. Your ideas are stupid. Any time you think of a thing, someone else has thought of it first.
There’s no point in trying to make anything better. It’s all as good as it can possibly be.
Such a perfect world doesn’t need your contribution; can’t be changed by the likes of you; won’t care, even if you do manage to come up with something novel.
You’re too young to be taken seriously, and too late for everything, so why bother?
So get out there and fulfill your failure, and don’t worry about dreaming.
People say "There don't seem to be as many opportunities nowadays compared to my parents' generation..." and the response from some older quite successful person who has not had to hunt for opportunities in the current regime is always "You fool! There's opportunity everywhere! Just get a paper route and in 5 years you'll be able to buy a mansion!"
I find it interesting how the older person who hasn't had to hunt for opportunities in the current regime is wrong, but it's taken for granted that the younger person who hasn't had to hunt for opportunities in the old regime is right.
I like people with your attitude! Leaves more for people willing to work and to learn things. I upvoted your comment out of pity.
That era represented the collapse of 8 bit microcomputers. They were huge, then nothing. Silicon Valley had boomed, then gone bust. No one had much use for computers except brave financial analysts willing to use the toylike Apple ][ for primitive spreadsheets. No one took the Mac seriously until Postscript and laser printers happened.
In October 1987 Black Monday hit, causing the worst market crash since the Depression. I hit up a bunch of angel investors—a term that didn’t even exist—to raise money for a batch file compiler. A compiler! That supported me and several employees for years.
Point is that you can always make opportunities happen even in hard times.
> Point is that you can always make opportunities happen even in hard times.
Always?
I work harder than anybody I know personally. I am constantly learning new things. People ask me all the time how I "know this stuff", and that has been true since I was a kid in a desert town in the middle of nowhere that only had a library to learn from.
I have tried many, many ideas and failed. I'm halfway through life now. I've missed many opportunities in hindsight, likely due to my narrow fixation on details. This is an aspect of HFA, which is something I've only recently learned about myself.
I think what you've said is factually correct. But not everyone is equipped to exploit the opportunities that may exist, and may struggle to be aware of their limitations. Furthermore, life doesnt guarantee you anything - luck is always an element.
> Leaves more for people willing to work and to learn things.
> I upvoted your comment out of pity.
Even the hardest working people can luck out and become frustrated. That doesn't change the fact that their best stategy is probably not to give up, but maybe be a bit more empathetic?
Thanks for a thought-provoking response. I was careful not to say one can always succeed in hard times. And I certainly didn’t talk about guarantees. But yes, one can make opportunities happen in the States. Sometimes or even most of the times we fail. I spent $1.4 million of my retirement money trying to beat Craigslist. The wife sure wasn’t thrilled. Nor when I tried to take on Gmail.
I was sure lucky, but I put myself in luck’s way as often as possible. That’s after I got away from home in my teens after years of neglect, beatings, depression, suicidal ideation, and sexual abuse.
Be more empathetic to someone being snide after I made a sincere post trying to offer up some hope in hard times? Fuck that noise.
Fair enough! Sharing your story will no doubt help somebody experiencing self doubt, and that could be exactly what somebody out there needs right now.
Dude, I wrote the book on self-doubt! The only thing that ever kept me going before a certain level of success was my observation that although I’m never the smartest guy around, I always know people dumber than I am who succeeded in similar areas by just showing up and grinding. I still overthink and sabotage myself.
No need to be patronizing. Pointing out that an argument is not a good one doesn't necessarily mean one holds the opposite view.
Just because people though once that situation A was the case while it was actually situation B, and now it seems again that situation A is the case doesn't mean it is necessarily again situation B, only that it might be situation B. It also actually might be situation A. But if it is actually situation B, extrapolating from the past is not a good argument. Doesn't mean that there are no other good arguments.
I'm not nearly as successful as you but agree wholeheartedly - there's 8 billion humans on the planet with constantly refreshing interests, and it's absolutely preposterous to think this doesn't provide a recurring, increasing source of opportunity
Meh, be careful with the word successful. You have no idea how successful I am. I’m way better off than most people, way poorer than many folks on HN, but I could be a complete jerk, or someone who pissed it all away, or someone who abandoned his family. Those things and so many others would disqualify me as successful in my book.
To me if you’re living in alignment with your values and aren’t too much of a drain on society most of the time, you’re successful.
You seem really unpleasant. It's nice that you were successful and all, but I'm not sure why you need to rub it in the face of people who are still trying to be successful.
Things obviously change over time. It's not non sequitur to claim that opportunities have shrunk over time. Bringing up counter-examples of opportunities that existed 40 years ago is not an argument.
I don't know why you think opportunity must be constant. I don't think you would have had much success with your .com startup mentality in 300BC.
Can you tell me where I was trying to rub anything in anyone’s face other than responding to direct insults? The original point of my post was that you’re never too late, and there are tons of opportunities here in the USA. The last thing I want to do is rub anything in anyone’s face, especially considering financial success is highly relative, and has almost no bearing on who you are as a person.
> I don't think you would have had much success with your .com startup mentality in 300BC.
Disagree? I’m a survivor. I would have looked around and tried to figure out the best ways not to die and to keep my family safe using what resources I had. Most people are less paranoid than I am and are willing to just get along. My instinct is to get a little ahead so I have a buffer.
