I'm assuming you mean learning how to program as a profession, but it's a difficult question to answer. It relies on so many factors, both in terms of the "market" you're in, as well as who you are as a person. Based on the average person that tries to become a professional programmer vs the average person that tries to become a professional poker player, I'd say it's considerably more realistic to become a professional programmer.

But again, if you want to find out just play the game and see how you do. Find stakes you can beat and try to move up.