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LLM agents to forecast geopolitical and economic events.

- Site: https://emergingtrajectories.com/

- GitHub repo: https://github.com/wgryc/emerging-trajectories

I've helped a number of companies build various sorts of LLM-powered apps (chatbots mainly) and found it interesting but not incredibly inspiring. The above is my attempt to build something no one else is working on.

It's been a lot of fun. Not sure if it'll be a "thing" ever, but I enjoy it.




Fascinating. I've done this on a tiny, micro scale -- giving the GPT scenarios (eg, conversations, situations) and asking how it would play out. In early 2023 it seemed to work really well, now that they've nerfed it so much, it's a bit too generic and proper.


Have you tried GPT-4 with the update from the past few days? (When Sam mentioned it should be less lazy.) I notice it’s gotten much better and more willing to make forecasts since then.


No but I'll check it out. Thanks!


Very interesting, have you attempted to backtest to see if the LLM forecasts are accurate?


Thanks for asking! Not yet as I’ve been focusing on building agents that can properly and regularly log predictions.

Ideally, I’d like the agents to then participate in prediction markets or “superforecasting” groups to use actual human predictions as baselines.


If your project makes you rich and you need some engineering help, call me ;)




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