During the Iraq War would you have ever imagined that the 'mobile chemical weapons laboratories', verified by 87 (or however many it was) different intelligence agencies, were actually just completely generic helium stations for weather balloons? That the 'high level insider in the Iraq government' was actually a taxi driver and thief with absolutely no connection whatsoever to the Iraq government? That the 'rock solid evidence of Saddam attempting to purchase yellowcake uranium from Niger' was actually just a poorly forged receipt? Literally all of the evidence we used to justify the invasion was fake, the exact same evidence that we had people like Colin Powell testify to the authenticity to, under oath.
So "we" don't have anything except claims from an active participant in a war who has been caught lying repeatedly during this war, who has a long history of lying prior, and who has every motivation to continue lying in this one. What's actually happened for the past couple of years will only become clear over the years to come.
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As for Crimea, it has a pretty wild history, but it's never been majority/plurality Ukrainian or even close to it. You can see a demographic history here. [1] At the start of the USSR it was designated a subregion of Russia, but was primarily populated by Tatars. Over the years leading up to WW2 many more Russians migrated to it, and relatively small number of Ukrainians. After WW2 the Tatars were accused of collaborating with the Nazis and deported from the region leaving it almost entirely Russian, which remained the case til the current era.
It was only in 1954 that Nikita Khrushchev granted it to Ukraine, ostensibly as a gift to Ukraine celebrating the 300th anniversary of Ukraine's integration into Russia. In reality it was part of a political power struggle of the time, and in the Russian world this is often referred to as Khrushchev's Folly, probably mimicking Seward's Folly. In spite it being a sub-region nominally under Ukraine, it remained populated primarily with ethnic Russians. And this never changed. The highest percent of Ukrainians was 26% in 1970, at which time there were also 67.3% ethnic Russians.
So "we" don't have anything except claims from an active participant in a war who has been caught lying repeatedly during this war, who has a long history of lying prior, and who has every motivation to continue lying in this one. What's actually happened for the past couple of years will only become clear over the years to come.
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As for Crimea, it has a pretty wild history, but it's never been majority/plurality Ukrainian or even close to it. You can see a demographic history here. [1] At the start of the USSR it was designated a subregion of Russia, but was primarily populated by Tatars. Over the years leading up to WW2 many more Russians migrated to it, and relatively small number of Ukrainians. After WW2 the Tatars were accused of collaborating with the Nazis and deported from the region leaving it almost entirely Russian, which remained the case til the current era.
It was only in 1954 that Nikita Khrushchev granted it to Ukraine, ostensibly as a gift to Ukraine celebrating the 300th anniversary of Ukraine's integration into Russia. In reality it was part of a political power struggle of the time, and in the Russian world this is often referred to as Khrushchev's Folly, probably mimicking Seward's Folly. In spite it being a sub-region nominally under Ukraine, it remained populated primarily with ethnic Russians. And this never changed. The highest percent of Ukrainians was 26% in 1970, at which time there were also 67.3% ethnic Russians.
[1] - https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Demographics_of_Crimea#Ethnici...