Altman won't be starting a competing company. First, he may have contractual restrictions and second, OpenAI owns their IP. And even if Altman is somehow free to do what he wants because he was fired (doubtful), anyone who quits to go with him surely do have airtight non-competes. Besides, it's not like Sam and his few loyalists are just going to spin up a few servers and duplicate what OpenAI has done. He'll do something AI-adjacent like the chip startup he was rumored to be pursuing.
As for Microsoft, they have a contract with OpenAI and are deeply reliant on them at the moment. OpenAI isn't disappearing just because Sam and Greg aren't there. Nadella may not be happy with the change, but he'll just have to live with it. Nothing will change for the foreseeable future there either.
When it comes to lawsuits? Who knows, but I highly doubt Altman will fight, or if he does, it will be discreetly settled as it's in no one's interest to wage some protracted battle. Microsoft may want to renegotiate their deal, but that again most likely isn't going to be anything nasty, as Microsoft needs OpenAI right now.
As for developers and consumers of OpenAI's service? They won't care or notice for many months until whatever changes the new CEO and board have in mind are enacted.
Want to bet? Altman has been building himself as the public face of AI and won't let that go so easily. It's not like his world coin is taking off...
And non competes can be as airtight as you like.. they are completely unenforceable in California which is where OpenAI's HQ is based and where Sam Altman lives.
First the loyal will jump ship. Followed quickly by the mercenaries who see the chance to join a new rocket ship from the ground up. Then as OpenAI's shares tank on the secondary market the rest will decide they've seen enough of their paper money burn and cash out.
OpenAI will survive but its going to be a much smaller company and a much smaller valuation.
As for Microsoft I'm guessing one of the strings Nadella was pulling was threatening to revoke credits, resources and even use by his teams and I'm sure he would be interested in investing in whatever Altman starts next and dedicating those now spare machines to the new enterprise.
California's non-compete laws don't cover "trade secrets", only your ability to use your expertise to pursue employment in your chosen field. In other words, if you're just a regular programmer, you can go work wherever you like or start a competing company. If you're a principal scientist or architect, you would be in danger of violating your contract. Anyone who went with Altman would presumably have deep inside knowledge of OpenAI's secret sauce and therefore be restricted.
I doubt Sam was personally that involved in the mechanics of the models.
But there is an alternative scenario.. in order for Microsoft to avoid loosing any momentum they might offer Altman an insane amount of money to become the John Giannandrea of Microsoft and bring as many of his recent colleagues with him. And for Altman this might be the easiest way to not loose ground as well with Microsofts patents and license agreements.
Altman won't be starting a competing company. First, he may have contractual restrictions and second, OpenAI owns their IP. And even if Altman is somehow free to do what he wants because he was fired (doubtful), anyone who quits to go with him surely do have airtight non-competes. Besides, it's not like Sam and his few loyalists are just going to spin up a few servers and duplicate what OpenAI has done. He'll do something AI-adjacent like the chip startup he was rumored to be pursuing.
As for Microsoft, they have a contract with OpenAI and are deeply reliant on them at the moment. OpenAI isn't disappearing just because Sam and Greg aren't there. Nadella may not be happy with the change, but he'll just have to live with it. Nothing will change for the foreseeable future there either.
When it comes to lawsuits? Who knows, but I highly doubt Altman will fight, or if he does, it will be discreetly settled as it's in no one's interest to wage some protracted battle. Microsoft may want to renegotiate their deal, but that again most likely isn't going to be anything nasty, as Microsoft needs OpenAI right now.
As for developers and consumers of OpenAI's service? They won't care or notice for many months until whatever changes the new CEO and board have in mind are enacted.