I've had two bikes stolen and one car stolen. I've had other attempts at stealing my bike. I've been in both bike accidents and car accidents over the years as well.
Anyway, your quote was "it feels like 50/50 it’ll get stolen". It just seems problematic mixing what you feel and some objective probability - it's easy to give people the impression the chance of bike theft is actually that. I mean, say "I'm afraid - here are the actual odds..."
So, let me get this straight - it’s quite likely a bike gets stolen and this experience, as shared with me, has led you to take precautions.
My precaution being not taking the bike some times and to some places.
How many times have you have a car stolen over that same time period?