I was also thinking about how quickly AI may progress and am curious for your or other people's thoughts. When estimating AI progress, estimating orders of magnitude sounds like the most plausible way to do it, just like Moore's law has guessed the magnitude correctly for years. For AI, it is known that performance increases linearly when the model size increases exponentially. Funding currently increases exponentially meaning that performance will increase linearly. So, AI will increase linearly as long as the funding does too. On top of this, algorithms may be made more efficient, which may occasionally make an order of magnitude improvement. Does this reasoning make sense? I think it does but I could be completely wrong.