This is definitely true. I've had some students who ramped up quickly in the first year or two, but some of my best students didn't ramp up until year 3 and had no output before then. It was very stressful for them, though, since students are prone to comparing themselves to the very best.
Yep - exactly. I'm not sure if there's any way to know if progress will accelerate or not. Personal research breakthroughs are likely a combination of preparation, luck, and environment. That can require patience, although I can say that at no time did it feel like my situation was hopeless or way off track. The conditions were appropriate for a breakthrough. If I hadn't seen the light at the end of the tunnel, I think that might have been a signal to switch tracks.
