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I'm not ready to predict, but based on what I saw in Europe in 2015[0] and how things[1] are developing[2] lately[3], I see this as a very plausible outcome.

The US and EU countries get more migrants than they can handle; resentment grows; attempts to solve the problem with bureaucracy and policing fail spectacularly; calls for outright violence grow louder; and the well-meaning citizenry agrees that Something Must Be Done!

Geo-engineering is something, and it will be done.

[0]: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2015_European_migrant_crisis

[1]: https://www.nytimes.com/2023/09/10/us/migrant-crisis-massach...

[2]: https://www.cbsnews.com/news/immigration-us-mexico-border-cr...

[3]: https://www.consilium.europa.eu/en/policies/eu-migration-pol...




So we basically have two possible futures ahead of us:

- we make an AGI or find a human genius that figures out a way to make it work, in which case we're all good

- we try it with known methods, it fails and we possibly go extinct faster in the worst case scenario

Fun times. No pressure.

On the bright side I suppose it only makes sense to plan for success though, since if we fail then we're dead anyway.




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