Yes, they said "more likely", so I think what I said still works because just because you were successful in the past doesn't mean you're more likely to succeed in the future in all circumstances, i.e., if you extrapolate an infinite number of scenarios then your likelihood of success doesn't remain constant in each and every single one of them. If that were the case, then we wouldn't have Lehman brothers or Polanski (filmaker) or SBF.