> EU knows and complains about Poland & Hungary but France is going to be a shitshow of a far worse magnitude.
I am French too and this sounds greatly exaggerated. Either you don't really know about the situation in Hungary or you have a very twisted view of what's happening in France (maybe induced by the medias). You should take a step back.
There is definitely a tendency to authoritarianism and confusionism from the current government, directed at political opposition.
"Security" laws extending the powers of the police and creating new ways to criminalize protest have been passed at a constant rhythm over the years since Sarkozy's time. After the state of urgency of 2015, part of the dispositions where simply put into law permanently.
Police has been increasingly violent during protests, bringing back old forbidden tactics and squads formerly dissolved for their violence (voltigeurs).
While there has been no dissolution of leftist movement and no political violence from the left since "action directe" in the 80's, there have been multiple ones (or attempts) in recent times, like the one from yesterday of an ecological movement.
Anti-terrorist laws are used to detain ecologists or protesters indefinitely, like in the case of the "8th november" affair from this topic, which has seen a person kept in solitary (hence, tortured) for 16 months without even being convicted.
And you are arguing with fallacies and emotion. Asking broad question to bring emotion without actually backing that up factually. Straw manning the others argument by reducing it to dislike of physical appearance, or simply directed stupidity. And then making vague assertions that they are "missing the big picture".
Please, friend, instead of attacking the man you should attack the argument. Give us the why to all of these assertions. What is the bigger picture? What actually could go wrong? Argue with facts please. Let's not turn this into a flame war
I agree my tone is inappropriate. I just can't help it, when it's about completely missing the big picture, blaming the wrong persons, and falling into fascist-like tactics and traps.
Here's a copy paste of my other comments, I hope it gives some elements of answer:
1. Just google Melenchon and Bolivarian alliance. Melenchon dreams of making France be part of an alliance with Cuba, Venezuela, Bolivia, to name a few, with Iran and Russia as observer members. Sounds like he loves "democracy". He also had some crazy outbursts, screaming things like, "I AM THE REPUBLIC", on camera, that would have ended any other politician career. But he gets a pass, somehow.
2. In February 2022, Zemour, MLP and Mélenchon were all supporting Putin, his stance against the "evil US", saying that Putin would never invade Ukraine, that it was all US propaganda being spoon-fed to Europe. Then the invasion happened. Then they blamed the invasion on US, of course, and questioned the reports of war crimes, and justified Russia invasion by saying it was defending against "NATO aggression". But then, when Russia started to loose, they became "pacifists", saying NATO was prolonging the war by helping Ukraine...
If they were Russian assets, they wouldn't behave much differently, would they?
Same smell on both sides of the political spectrum. Who would have thought? Crazy, right? Like, imagine if far-right Hitler made a secret pact with the communist Soviet Union. Sounds familiar?
Not sure what Melenchon is doing in its list as one of it core element of its political platform is to have a new constitution with less power to the president, more counter powers, more power "to the people"
Just google Melenchon and Bolivarian alliance. Melenchon dreams of making France be part of an alliance with Cuba, Venezuela, Bolivia, to name a few, with Iran and Russia as observer members. Sounds like he loves "democracy". He also had some crazy outbursts, screaming things like, "I AM THE REPUBLIC", on camera, that would have ended any other politician career. But he gets a pass, somehow.
I am not a fan of Melenchon. I find problematic his taste for the Bolivarian alliance, or his defense of Cuba. I find problematic the lack of democracy in his political party.
But a new constitution with more democracy is still one of the center piece of his political agenda, and the political agenda of his party. That is not the case of any other major party I think. And there is no reason to believe his party would not act at least partially on it if elected.
He's been mocked big time for his "support" of Venezuela or his outbursts... But Macron and many other French political figures faced bigger scandal without having their career ended ! Why such a focus on Melenchon ?
His views about a new constitution with more democracy are worthless to me, as I see him as a bad faith actor, exploiting the usual populist tactics such as permanent outrage, inflammatory discourse, obstruction of debates, conflictualization of everything, exacerbating existing social tensions, defining democracy around concepts like "the revolution", "the people", etc.
How is it not obvious to everyone? It's obvious to me that would this guy be president, his already very authoritarian tendencies would only get worse. How comes his political agenda is relevant?
He rules his political party as a Great Leader while having no democratic relevance, as he got rejected at all past elections. Not to mention his ridiculous PR stunt when he was boasting about being the next prime minister. He is so full of shit, I'm astonished he still is listened to. He can't get to govern from elections, so he fantasizes about bypassing all that with a good'ol Socialist Revolution™.
So I think there are LOTS of reasons to believe his party (so basically himself) would not act as promised if elected. I think he would quickly identify countless enemies of the People. I think disagreeing with him would make anyone an enemy of the People. Today, it's already quite courageous for any journalist to disagree with him in front of him. The guy has serious anger management issues, and usually addresses such journalists with threats and accusations. Seeing how he behaves on camera, I can only imagine how it is to disagree with him privately.
Now, not saying Macron is perfect by any means, but I'd be curious to hear about these bigger scandals that didn't end his career.
To me your first sentence basically describe so many politicians on the French political scene from all parties ! (except for the "revolution" part which I am deeply surprise to read here) So why do you have such focus on Melanchon ?
Melenchon is not alone, he is with a party with many different people, deagreing on some subject, but tending to agree on a new "more democratic" constitution. Furthermore he would need to ally with other parties, like the Green, who have a strong democracy and pro-democracy tradition.
Furthermore Melanchon himself will probably "retire", does your argument still stand when he goes, or is this FRance Insoumise that scares you ?
I see you switch from defending him (as it's impossible) to "both-siding" it, and pretending I have a "focus" on him, and then hinting that I'm just scared... Sounds like a typical LFI politician. It's disappointing.
So, let's start with "Why do I have such focus on Melanchon?"
That one is just dishonest. Let me remind you of your own answer that started this focus on Mélenchon:
"Not sure what Melenchon is doing in its list as one of it core element of its political platform is to have a new constitution with less power to the president, more counter powers, more power "to the people""
I'm just answering your question and staying on topic... But you try to turn this around as me being a maniac. Just like Mélenchon, you aren't really interested in an honest debate, are you?
You also reach to the disappointing "All politicians are the same to me" argument when the guy you defend is exposed as the imposture he is.
As to your deep surprise about the "revolution" part, I think you might not know about Mélenchon true ideas and background. Here's a talk he gave in 2012, in Venezuela when Chavez won his 5th term: https://www.facebook.com/StopCaSuffit/videos/extrait-dun-dis...
Here's a small part of it: "Qu'est ce qu'on fait, camarades, ça c'est un cas concret de révolution. La révolution, c'est pas un sujet de, heu... C'est un sujet concret! C'est une stratégie qu'il faut mener comme nous meme nous en avons une en France. Et après, il faut, non seulement conquérire le pouvoir mais également l'exercer de manière révolutionnaire!"
In English this would be something like "What are we doing, comrades? This is a concrete case of revolution. Revolution is not just a topic, uh... It's a concrete matter! It's a strategy that needs to be pursued, just like we have our own in France. And afterwards, not only do we need to conquer power but also exercise it in a revolutionary manner!"
That's appealing to me. You can see what I assume is Chavez supporters in the background. Chavez was en-route to his 5th term, closer and closer to achieving President-For-Live. That seems to speak a lot to Mélenchon.
Now, you say that he's not alone, and that other people in his party disagree on some subject, but that they agree on a new "more democratic" constitution. Yeah. Sure. These people define "democracy" in their own vague and populist way. "power to the people" is a overused catch phrase that's usually not precisely defined. It very quickly turns into the various parody of socialist democracies that are just dictatorships disguised as "People Democracy". You know that, right? Do I even have to explain all of that? When you here "People" too much in a politician mouth, you know he's just a conman.
You are acting like an apologist of what clearly is a dishonest megalomaniac with serious anger management issues, using the word "democracy" and "people" to justify anything without ever defining it.
Finally, it doesn't matter if I'm scared by this "FRance Insoumise", as a matter of fact he built this party around his big personality, and made it a nest of populists, opportunists and generally confused people, but nevertheless revolted, angry, chaotic and proud of it. I'm yet to hear anything honest, relevant, or interesting from them. It's just accusations, threats, whataboutism, bad faith and obstruction of debate. They are not "Insoumis", they are angry bigots, ready to be completely "soumis" to their Great Leader in exchange of some revenge against "the wealthy", capitalism, and some vague notion of a conspiracy of "the west" / US / Europe. I guess they are bored of their normal lives, they fantasize of being oppressed to justify their hunger for chaos / revolution / violence but it's really boredom from highly privileged people that think they are slaves, somehow.
It's easy being a communist in a free country. Try being free in a communist country.
Now, I'm not focusing on Mélenchon, you just happened to ask specifically about him. I'd be happy to discuss other disgusting politicians, such as, as I mentioned, Le Pen, or Zemour. There are other bad actors, of course, but these 3 are the most known and the most dangerous. Macron has done/said several thing I don't like (removing ISF taxes, his backward views on cannabis, his recent licking of Elon's ass), but he's not in the same ballpark. I persist: anyone pointing him as THE threat to democracy is completely missing the big picture.
--- clarification and details of my initial point ---
The starting point of this exchange is me saying that I can see Le Pen or Zemmour as a potentiel threat to the current French democracy, but not Melenchon.
Le Pen is from a political party that has a long history of wanting less counter power (ending the "republic of the judge" for example") and more "authority'. And in places where her party got power, there're been some issues with NGOs or political opponent.
Zemmour clearly said that he wants less counter power, and want to care less about human rights for example.
A big part of the conservative right (they need them to get the power) agree with them on those topic. They can have the support of some influential billionaires and medias.
Melenchon and his party clearly said for several years that he wants more democracy with a concrete proposal... In his party there are a strong minority that don't want a less authoritative French state (some used to like Chevenement..) but they are a minority, and they don't want a more authoritative state. None of his allies (he needs them to access and keep power) want a more authoritative state, and some allies want a more democratic state. There is no know authoritative leftist billionaire of influential media.
I don't know how many of them vote for the far right, but why on earth would they vote for NUPES? Mélenchon constantly attacks them, he's on auto-blame mode.
The main point here is that when you don't have the support of police and military at all, the risk for democracy is lower... when you have their support, it is easier to be more authoritative. Do you agree with this ?
To me " permanent outrage, inflammatory discourse, obstruction of debates, conflictualization of everything, exacerbating existing social tensions" or using "vague" undefined word or using "overused catch phrase" can definitely apply to Macron, Darmanin, Ciotti, Valls, Rousseau, Wauquiez... and many others. All mainstream political party. Most of mainstream politicians doing good in the medias in 2023. And I guess we can also say they are "dishonest megalomaniac", and many have as "serious anger management issues".
All mainstream political parties (except perhaps the Greens) have had serious internal democracy problems (including falsifying votes in PS, UMP, LR).
This is bad. This does not give faith in politicians. But it seems that for you this represent a danger for democracy when it comes to Melanchon, but not when it comes to centrists or politician from the right.
-
2- About the revolution.
You said he is "defining democracy around concepts like "the revolution" ; that is absolutely not the case, especially not in the video you sent.
As I said in a previous comment, I find problematic his defense of Chavez or Castro. And this support is of course a little scary when it comes to democracy into the adversity. But Melenchon program being so different (nothing really radical in his platform - especially compared to Cuba or Venezuelan situation), in a country with much more counter power than Cuba or Venezuela, with a political plateform with a more democracy as center piece, and allies strongly against anything more authoritative in the current state... Well, that is not cool, but I don't see a real risk here
-
3 - New democracy and being vague
Most politician are often "vague". This includes la France Insoumise. Still tehy tend to produce a lot of written stuff explaining their positions for the last presidential election for exemple. Including testing their economical scenario with the Banque de France model, or detail plan about army...
Here is one thing about the new constitution https://lafranceinsoumise.fr/2023/05/02/passer-a-la-6e-repub...
-
4. La France Insoumise
Your view of la France Insoumise can explain why you fear for democracy... But how did you came to this conclusion ??? That is surprising. I would not be able to say this about any political party in France. Do you know their are business owner, startupers, economists, rich people... supporting La France Insoumise ? I really think you don't know them enough. Know your enemy ;)
-
5- Communism
Melenchon is not communist and his polical plateform is not communist, why this quote ?
1- There's no comparing Macron and Mélenchon. Macron is not anywhere close regarding inflammatory discourse, and conflictualization of everything. Imagine if Macron had screamed "I AM THE REPUBLIC" on camera like Mélenchon did.
I'm sorry but if you can't at least admit this, there's nothing we can gain from this conversation.
2- Did you watch the video? It's clear that his idea of governing is "conquer[ing] power but also exercise it in a revolutionary manner!". If he's not talking about his understanding of democracy, then I don't know what he's talking about. In any case he's explicitly supporting using "revolution" and "conflictualization of everything" to "conquer power" and "exercise it in a revolutionary manner". If that doesn't scare you, I don't know what will.
3- I'm sorry but I won't bother read stuff from LFI, they so often fail to be relevant, throwing nice-sounding ideas around, they don't care if they work, everything sounds so easy, "pay people more", "more money to education", "more money to health care", "lower retirement age", "more democracy", "more power to the people". All of that we can't have because of [some target group]. [some target group] are conspiring against "the people". Can't you see it's just a "nice" and empty ideology? It has a name: demagogy and populism.
4- I'm not surprised some powerful people support a demagogue. While it'll be bad for most people, opportunists can really profit from such a regime.
5- This quote is just there to remind you that LFI have it very easy, they point at "authoritarian" Macron, while they burn mannequins of him, threaten to behead him like Louis XVI, put his head on footballs, etc. They can do all that borderline stuff with no consequences. They just support these massive hate campaigns. Which is maybe ok? Because it's free-speech? I don't know, it sounds like hate speech to me. But in any case they have it soooooo easy, compared to any country with actual authoritarian leaders. It's easy being InSoUmIs in a free country. They are just highly privileged people, pretending to be oppressed and revolting against an imaginary "dictatorship". Can't you see that? It's so obvious to me.
Let me add a 6th point. The way Mélenchon blames Ukraine, apologizes Putin, his completely ridiculous stance just before the war started, saying that Russia would never invade and that it was all a big plot from US/NATO as always... He was soooooo wrong on that one, it's just embarrassing. He's wrong on so many things, but he just angrily moves forward, finding new enemies to denounce, new polemics to surf on, never acknowledging his spectacularly failed predictions. I simply can't understand for the life of me how can educated and honest people fall for such an obvious fraud.
1- Macron is known for his inflammatory and regular "petites phrases" (but often said more calmly than Melenchon), like "people who are success, and people who are nothing"... Some of his minister (eg. Darmanin) too, with some fake news sometimes.
And there are discourses and there are actions... Even journalists of le Figaro (right, with far right journalists and guests) had to publicly protest several times against Macron and his police because of stuff linked to democracy.
2. Your initial post where mentioning defining democracy around the term of revolution. This is not the case. Note that most violent revolution were to bring more democracy (even if does not end well all the times) and he seems to use the word in a very broad sense, including winning election. I did say this point is in a way scary, but gave you detailed explanation why in this context it is not that scary at all. You did not answered to any of those points.
3. I you don't read their detailed stuff, how do you know it is "a "nice" and empty ideology" ?
4. Why you call him a demagogue (even without reading any detailed stuff) ? and on what base you you say it will be bad for most people ?
More importantly as we were talking about democracy, how do you see Melenchon managing to reduce democracy, while his political plateform is more democracy, his party and people voting for him want more democracy, while his allies he need does not want less democracy, while there are important safeguard in France, while counter powers does not want less democracy, while army, police, companies and press does not like him and would oppose any move toward more autoritarism ???
5 - Your answer is off-topic... Still answering it :
Protesters did a lot of things, not LFI (except for ONE elected representative saying something one time)...
The discourse of LFI is the recent protest the not centered around the lack of democracy but about retirement, and more broadly about work and money.
No LFI leader compared the French situation with Russia ! But indeed some pointed that democracy moved back a bit... And indeed even journalist from Figaro had to mobilize several times against Macron for stuff link to democracy... And I am sometimes afraid to go protest (and I do respect the law) having been attacked several times by the police... And the recent twist to prevent the parliament to vote a law is lawful but is seen as going against "democracy" by a majority of French people.
6 - Here again a new off topic subject... You are grossly caricaturing his position, but what is the link with democracy in France ??? (note that only USA predicted that Russia will attack)
7- If you are around Lille, let's have a drink if you want :-)
1- could you give me an example from one of his "petites phrases" that would compare to "I AM THE REPUBLIC!!"? I think the words are important, but the telling of it also. Melenchon not only say ridiculous things, but he tends to scream those with visceral hatred. Let's be honest, it just can't come close to any "petites phrases" from Macron.
2- Hmmm. More often than not, "revolutions" have put merciless dictators into power instead of actually liberating anyone. A revolution in a free country usually is bad news. A country where you can freely parade with drawings of the beheaded president is not a country that needs a revolution to me.
3- There are way too many red flags, I won't waste my time reading their stuff. I know I'll just roll my eyes at each one of their "y'a-qu'à-faut-qu'on" claims. Sorry but you don't need to taste a cake when it smells like shit 10 meters away.
Do you read Zemour's books? No, you don't need to, if you have any critical thinking and heard him about 3 times, you know he's a fraud, a liar, a populist surfing on racism, hatred, fear, and national pride. And probably backed by the Kremlin.
4- I call him a demagogue because, again, he just makes random promises, like double the minimal salary / universal salary / prevent old people from voting (what???), without knowing how it would actually work, and he doesn't care anyway, he just targets some left-leaning audience, say whatever he thinks they would like to hear, and blame everything on Macron. He appeals to the lowest instincts. Envy, pride, hatred. What he says is worthless, he's not playing the game, he bullshits his way through everything. And when confronted, he doesn't have arguments, he just counter-attacks, it's a smoke-screen, because he's a fraud. Macron might be somewhat pretentious/pedant, but when confronted he's not afraid of staying on topic, he has a point, and consistent argument. You might disagree with him, I do on several topics, but he usually knows what he's talking about and don't need to use diversions/accusations/obstruction like Melenchon or MLP.
And then, if elected, maybe he would fail at turning France into the "Bolivarian dream", but why would you support him in the first place??
5- I'm sorry but the discourse of LFI recently was not particularly centered around one topic, it was centered around getting outraged with anything, given it comes from Macron, and Hijacking any "fait divers" to blame it on him. Some guy got almost hit by a car because he wasn't paying attention? Of course he wasn't paying attention because he was so upset with all the things Macron has done to The French People, damned Macron! He did so much harm, we need to put him in jail! Sounds ridiculous? It is, but I've heard such comments from LFI supporters. Those were completely brainwashed :(
Now, you say that people noticed democracy moved back a bit, so we need to attack the "extreme centrists" (I've heard this as well) and push to elect an angry dictatorship-loving guy? Are you serious??
Also, not sure what the recent "twist" was, but I'm sorry, it's meaningless to me. Again, either it's lawful, either it's not. I find this constant questioning of our constitution and rules very concerning. It's not attacked because of the rules themselves, it's attacked when it allows the current government to... govern. It's not fair. Did you notice that the constitution and rules are not attacked when it allows the opposition to do obstruction with dozens of motions de censures, with thousands of sloppy change-requests to proposed laws, etc. I think it's sad that the current opposition act like they aren't interested in honest debates. Yet, you don't hear Macron attack the rules.
6- Why is it off topic?? I thought the topic was "why is mélenchon in the same list as zemour and MLP". All of them were admiring the "stance" of Putin against NATO "aggression", bashing the US for "disinformation" about an imminent invasion. Sure, other actors mispredicted, even zelensky, but then, there's being wrong, and there's being wrong about something you were loudly using to prove your whole ideology and world view is THE correct one and everyone else are dumb and evil supporters of some western conspiracy which raison d'être is to destroy our Kremlin friends and enslave the world into CaPiTaLiSm. Of course I'm caricaturing, but I don't think I'm caricaturing that much. I can't find the tweet anymore, but it was the usual outraged, bold, harshest possible tone. Maybe for once he could have shown a little bit of humility when proven spectacularly wrong? Of course not, when proven wrong, he just doubles down. It's who he is, that's what he does.
Now if the topic is just democracy, then, I think his support of invaders and totalitarian war criminals is still completely on topic.
7- Sure, I'm sure this debate would be much more constructive in person :)
I still appreciate the way you deescalated the conversation. I admit I loose my temper way too fast, and that's bad.
I would be a terrible politician.
Or... would I?
;-)
We have a different sensibility when it comes to words ; for example I personally find Macron's "petites phrases" more problematic than Melenchon's ones, and I find both as good (but with different style) debaters, able to use facts, arguments and figures.
We both agree that word and discourse are important. But I think going deeper than what you heard on mainstream media is important to have a clearer picture. I think that concrete situation (eg. who are in their parties, who are their allies, what is the power dynamics...) is important. And I think that what people do is often more important than what people says. My argumentation was mostly based on this ; and I felt that your answers were mostly based on some "words" you heard on some medias, and often your "feeling" about it.
We both hate and fight against Zemmour. But while I did not read entire books of him, I am reading media not aligned with my conviction for years, I spent many hours reading and listening Zemmour, Zemmour supporters, and people putting work to describe Zemmour situation. I talked with far right people. I am not hating them and find them dangerous just because this smell shit from a distance, I have argument. I know they are not some crazy incoherent dudes. I know them enough to be able to easily be the devil advocate if I wanted.
When it come to LFI or Melanchon, you are just saying things so distorted, showing that you really don't know them. They wanted to increase the minimal salary by 15% (what a revolution), you think they want to double the minimal salary... We can argue about their program, but some serious economists backed it. You really have a grotesque view of LFI and their program (note that like any party, there are many different people in LFI). And I personally don't really like them (but voted for them once). I don't have a grotesque view of Zemmour I think.
Our last source of disagreement is I guess Democracy. Your definition of democracy seems to be "what is lawful under the 5th French Republic" ; even when it is against the vast majority of what French people want, even when it is against what 100% of the elected union want, against the elected parliament, and even Le Figaro journalists (and most other journalist) have to mobilized themselves several times because of the threats against freedom of the press. Personally I want more democracy.
> You are attacking the wrong target. You are missing the big picture.
This is rich comming from someone putting Melenchon, basically an old school socialist (in the werstern Europe sense), in the same bag as Le Pen and Zemmour who are as far-right as it gets in Europe.
I agree that the situation is not very readable, but at least let's try to have a point of view consistent with the political history of the last few decades.
Yet there are lot of striking similarities. Lying, distorting reality to the absurd, openly supporting dictators, smoke-screen tactics, obstruction, inversion of reality, accusing others of things they are guilty. "Macron is a wanabee dictator!!".
In February 2022, Zemour, MLP and Mélenchon were all supporting Putin, his stance against the "evil US", saying that Putin would never invade Ukraine, that it was all US propaganda being spoon-fed to Europe. Then the invasion happened. Then they blamed the invasion on US, of course, and questioned the reports of war crimes, and justified Russia invasion by saying it was defending against "NATO aggression". But then, when Russia started to loose, they became "pacifists", saying NATO was prolonging the war by helping Ukraine...
If they were Russian assets, they wouldn't behave much differently, would they?
Same smell on both sides of the political spectrum. Who would have thought? Crazy, right? Like, imagine if far-right Hitler made a secret pact with the communist Soviet Union. Sounds familiar?
Le Pen is not "as far-right as it gets" and neither is Zemmour.
Melenchon is very left-wing, started as a Trostkist and is good friend Venezuela's Maduro, against the capitalist system, etc. So if you think Le Pen is extreme on one side then Melenchon has to be equally extreme on the other side.
So did more than half of the socialist party elit (elephant du PS), even freaking Cambadelis, are you suggesting he’s far left to ?
> against the capitalist system
Well yes, almost by definition of being on the left I would argue.
> So if you think Le Pen is extreme on one side then Melenchon has to be equally extreme on the other side.
No, this is a false equivalence. I mean the far-left as a political position does exist in France, but it is not represented by Melenchon who is still largely a socialist, although the actual socialist party has significantly shifted rightward in the 10's so there is a perception issue there.
The socialist party effectively no longer exists because its right wing has been absorbed by Macron and its left wing by Melenchon and friends. So now we're left with a large effectively far left group with Melenchon, Communist Party, LFI, etc.
My take on left-wing politics since the 1990s is that the fall of Communist/Solialist countries has made the old agenda difficult to sell so it's rehashed, repackaged, but at its core it's still the same. We've also seen that in the UK with Corbyn and McDonnell.
One thing in France is that it is usually better viewed to be far on the left than far on the right. For instance, the Communist Party are almost seen as nice guys these days...
Another point is that you do not explain why Le Pen is more extremist than Melenchon/LFI, etc.
What I say is that IF France becomes an illiberal democracy, it is going to be far worse for EU than what happened in Hungary. Hungary and France are absolutely not on the same scale
Wait for the next election in Germany. AfD has just climbed to the 2nd place with 20% of support and is still growing. Believe or not, one day you will miss someone like Orban.
Well, in the last election the greens were projected to get the most votes. Didn't happen. Not to say that the AfDs popularity isn't worrisome, it is, but votes are counted on election days.
And of course the response from the other parties is to see if they can ban the AfD instead of realizing that this is their own doing by continously ignoring the interest of the voters who are then easily swayed by a populist party (or just voting AfD because none of the other options are good either).
> Believe or not, one day you will miss someone like Orban.
I think you're sugarcoating the statement. Any type of authoritarianism is bad, would you mind elaborating why AfD would be worse than what Orban or Duda or even Erdogan are doing to their countries?
Well, you do, but not if you don't already find their views palatable.
There is a large undercurrent of reactionary hateful views in German politics that usually hides behind the fig leaf of "conservatism" but has become more visible thanks to parties like CSU openly copying AfD talking points and "liberal" media being unequipped to handle them in any other way than giving them a platform and hoping that the "marketplace of ideas" saves the day. Of course as we now know from experience, "rational debate" is impotent in a "post-truth" environment.
It's a widespread misconception that Germany got rid of all the Nazis and Nazi ideology during the so-called "Denazification" (Entnazifizierung).
While there were formal reviews of the innumerable former NSDAP members to determine their ideology and behavior under Nazi rule, only the most blatant offenders faced any consequences and it was demonstrably easy to "cheat" (i.e. we now know based on a better understanding of historical records that some people were able to hide very incriminating evidence of their involvement in e.g. forced labor and Jewish persecution) and any undesirable rulings could be appealed to offer another opportunity to "correct the record" so to say. As a consequence, many Nazis saw no real consequences and even ended up in the same positions of power because their job experience made them the most qualified (and "innocent until proven guilty", right?).
Additionally, many former NSDAP members went on to continue working in politics. Of the parties still relevant today, the conservative CDU/CSU received the lions share of them, in addition to those formerly associated with the likewise Christian "center party" which while ostensibly "politically moderate" was one of the driving forces in the rise of the NSDAP and the passing of the Enabling Act dissolving the democracy.
In East Germany, likewise many former NSDAP members ended up in the equivalent of the CDU/CSU (known as CDU in East Germany at the time and CDUD or Ost-CDU in West Germany), the NDPD and the LDPD (the East Germany equivalents of the market liberal West German FDP, the NDPD explicitly being created to target "unimpacted" ex-NSDAP members and siphon off conservative voters who would otherwise have supported the CDU or LPDP), all of which continued to exist as an executive organ[1] of the ruling unity party until 1989.
It's also worth pointing out the East Germany was even less rigurous in its "Denazification" (Stalin ended the program in 1948 insisting that it was time to stop distinguishing between ex-NSDAP and non-NSDAP and instead focus on growing democracy) and the SED was uniquely ill-equipped to deal with neo-Nazis when they arose, previously already having viewed "unimpacted" NSDAP members as politically confused rather than genuinely dangerous. For some it was literally impossible to imagine neo-Nazis could exist in East Germany because they saw the rise of the Nazis as a response to capitalism and East Germany was supposed to be non-capitalist[2]. For this reason, East Germany was however (like the USSR) quite successful at fighting other leftist currents, which were seen as misguided or even "capitalist" (as the only valid form of anti-capitalism was clearly that practiced by the government and opposing it therefore must be capitalist).
So in essence Germany has never weaned itself off fascism, really. While Germany has become generally more progressive compared to the 1930s, in some ways it is also still less progressive than it was during the Weimar era. A lot of leftist politics also died even before the suppression under the Nazis, the suppression under the SED or the suppression under the Cold War era anti-communist West Germany: while many know about the in-fighting between the SPD and the USPD after WW1, culminating in a massacre at the hands of monarchist paramilitaries, there were also numerous other leftist mass deaths such as the two(!) socialist republics in Bavaria, which eventually also fell victim to the monarchists.
In other words, it shouldn't be surprising that we still have monarchist terrorist groups (Reichsbürger) treated with more bewilderment than horror, whereas the closest we have to leftist activism is moderates gluing themselves to public roads to demand incremental climate protection legislation, and two so-called leftist parties that hate each others guts and one of which has almost fully embraced neoliberalism (the SPD implemented the neoliberal reforms of weakening labor protections, social welfare and medical care some 20 years ago).
The AfD is a protest vote in as much as Trump is a protest vote. They're not something you usually bring up in polite conversation but they have easy answers and push all the right (wing) faux-populist buttons.
[1]: Point of pedantry: East Germany quickly established a system with a single ruling party, the SED or "socialist unity party". However the CDU, NDPD and LDPD continued to exist as "block parties" and began increasingly aligning themselves with the ruling SED. The "block parties" were infamously nepotistic and provided a relatively easy path to political power and privileges compared to the dominant SED.
[2]: Point of pedantry: East Germany was not "communist" although it was at times framed as "Stalinist". East Germany instead eventually used the label "real existing socialism" (along with some other Eastern block countries) which was intended to frame anyone left of the ruling party as "utopian" and unserious. This "it's already as good as it gets" position is distinct from other so-called "communist" countries which often used the term aspirationally, claiming they would eventually achieve the communist ideal after reaching a tipping point (allowing the state to "wither away"). Both are distinct from anarcho-communists who would argue that if you try to build a state to achieve communism, "real existing socialism" really is the best you can hope for because states don't wither away voluntarily and you can only grow communism from the ground up (cf. prefigurativism).
Factually correct as far as I can tell. Painful though. I've met some Germans of 'a certain age' in the 80's and none of them ever owned up to what they were up to during the war. Also a good number of them claimed to be Swiss but turned out to be Germans after all. Lots of whitewashing there.
Police and justice in particular were largely unscathed by "denazification". People like the fervent nazi anti-semite Willi Geiger, who was among other things a Special Prosecutor at a Special Nazi Court (with a death toll, having personally pressed and seen to the public execution of an 18yo suspected gay among other people), went on to preside at the supreme court and later became the longest serving federal constitutional judge of germany and also leaked all court internals to the adenauer government, are just the tip of a very brown ice berg.
> 2/3rds of AfD supporters claim to be doing it as a protest vote. And that they don't support the AfD. Just like with brexit.
> There's still time for an alternative before all of Europe goes in with fascism again.
AfD => fascism. Argumentum ad Hitlerum basically. Does Germany really need more migration? More identity kamikaze? More publicly financed propaganda (ARD, ZDF, DW, plenty "N"GOs)? More provocation towards Russia for no god damn reason? More climate hysteria (and the unevitable destruction of enviroment for it)?
Which party would you choose instead? They all stand for the same thing with different velocity except ... yeah, exactly.
The AfD may not be literally a fascist party, but it does have a prominent right-wing extremist faction that includes several of its most widely known members such as this man: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bj%C3%B6rn_H%C3%B6cke
I think arguing about the accuracy of labels like "nazi" or "fascist" is a bit beside the point. You and I both know the people calling the AfD fascist or nazi won't suddenly like it better if you can convince them they don't meet the exact definition of fascism or are identical to the historical National Socialist Democratic Workers Party. It's clearly more about a vibe, but that is also true for the AfD's own political ideology (and yours, apparently, if you think "identity kamikaze" is 1) a thing that is happening and 2) something to be seriously concerned about). Incidentally the NSDAP also had different factions including Strasserites, who imagined a more proletarian-led economy and people who thought having homosexuals like Röhm around was acceptable, at least for utilitarian purposes. Incidentally, most of those were murdered by the rest once the NSDAP actually got into power. Such is the reward for being progressive in the far-right.
It's been all but proven that Höcke is Landolf Ladig. Do you have any doubts about that person being a Nazi/fascist/right-extremist? Or do you know any compelling arguments against them being the same person?
Whats wrong with mentioning the fact "Bernd" is being used as his name? That's just a fact, isn't it?
Protest votes. What would one expect if the Green party is suddenly a warmongering party and Scholz is silent about Nord Stream even after the Washington Post essentially blames Ukraine?
Also, while I don't like the people in the AfD, they are still mostly the former right wing of the CDU/CSU, which is not comparable to Orban. CDU/CSU can blame itself for mismanagement.
And even if democracy ends up dying in France, the French have the history of overthrowing governments; they did it several times before, they can do it again if push comes to shove.
During the Trump/Biden elections, I distinctly remember the "these elections probably are also being manipulated by the Russians right now" narrative being dropped the moment it became obvious that Biden's winning. Well, if the right candidate wins, the elections must have been fair.
The elections can be skewed with different kind of manipulation (social media, troll farms, electronic ballot hacks) and the popular candidate can still win.
It's fair to assume Putin would try to influence the elections in trump's favor as he would have been beneficial for him.
The Ukraine invasion would have been much easier if trump had been relelected, finished pulling out of nato and kept the more isolationist policy that was in effect during trump.
IMO trump was also doing a lot of damage to the US and it's position on the world stage which is also beneficial for Putin.
> The Ukraine invasion would have been much easier if trump had been relelected, finished pulling out of nato and kept the more isolationist policy that was in effect during trump.
It wouldn't have occured because NATO and the US wouldn't have been escalating it the way they did post and pre Trump.
I know this is not the right narrative (TM) but for anyone who remembers wars are not about good Vs evil but geopolitics, they'll realize the interests at play.
But hey, Iraq has WMDs and Vietnam... Er... Something.
The best part of that January was that a coup and/or civil war did not happen. The US got on with business. It could have went bad, but it did not do so.
> The best part ... was that a coup ... did not happen
Strong disagree: a half-assed, incompetently executed, failed bank robbery is still classed as and prosecuted as "bank robbery", there is no separate legal category for "attempted bank robbery".
It's the same with a failed coup. "the coup failed pathetically" is categorically different from "a coup did not happen".
There was no coup attempt in the US. Trump was legitimately elected, and proved to be competent as a president, if somewhat weak due to opposition from the entrenched bureaucracy ("deep state"). He was certainly less of a warmonger than his immediate predecessors or successors, for which the world should be grateful. All the hysteria about him proved to be just that.
Well we can't say he didn't do anything strange. Firing huge portions of the state department to replace them with loyalists, attempting to dismantle the EPA (the only agency keeping track of aging nuclear submarines and, you know, that whole climate change thing), exiting the Iran nuclear deal for essentially nothing. Those are just from the top of my head but apart from the constant social faux-pas being signal boosted to the entire world, there was a very long chain of legitimately frightening actions that led to fears about him being relatively justified. Then there's the whole "big lie" and all the actions leading up to it. No one could rightly say he _wasn't_ attempting to seize continued power. I don't think it was like a full military coup, but there were definitely concerning actions
Also, despite his stupid rhetoric, his diplomacy facing China was so miserably bad that they now own military bases all over the world and are set up to challenge us with more than just saber rattling.
Repeating "China is so bad" into a microphone a thousand times turns out isn't actual leadership.
"Either you don't really know about the situation in France or you have a very twisted view of what's happening in Hungary /Poland (maybe induced by the medias). You should take a step back"
I am French too and this sounds greatly exaggerated. Either you don't really know about the situation in Hungary or you have a very twisted view of what's happening in France (maybe induced by the medias). You should take a step back.