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Doing back of napkin math (using the numbers I can find) it doesn't seem like nuclear power is expensive to construct - at least compared to solar and wind. Nothing is cost competitive with natural gas and coal - but that's the problem we are trying to solve.

Solar:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Topaz_Solar_Farm

The Topaz Solar Farm in the US has a capacity of 550MW and a construction cost of $2.5b US billion.

That puts it at a cost of $4.5 million per MW capacity (550MW / 2.5b) (adjusted for inflation that's $3.2b USD or $5.8m per MW). It is used at 26% of its capacity which I assume is due to the non dispatchable nature of solar (would likely change if batteries were added - increasing cost).

Assuming a 10 year loan at 3% adds $500m bringing it to $6.7m per MW capacity

Nuclear:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Palo_Verde_Nuclear_Generating_...

The Palo Verde nuclear plant has a capacity of 3937MW and a construction cost of $12.6b USD adjusted for inflation. That puts it at a cost of $3.2m per MW capacity and it was used at 82% of its capacity over its lifetime.

Interest at 3% over 10 years adds 2b to the figure making it $3.7m per MW capacity

Limitations:

This doesn't consider running costs, maintenance or factor how usage capacity affects cost.

Maybe I am missing something, perhaps the running costs of nuclear eclipse the total cost of solar + batteries over 50 years? Maybe the loans granted for nuclear are at a much higher interest rate than those granted for other power projects? Is insurance a factor?




The Topaz Solar Farm began construction in 2011. Solar costs dropped a lot in the following decade:

https://www.solarreviews.com/blog/how-does-utility-scale-sol...

See figure 9 in particular:

https://www.solarreviews.com/content/images/blog/SMI-2021-Q2...

Utility scale fixed tilt PV installations like Topaz were down to $0.77 per watt ($0.77 million per megawatt) by 2021.


Does $0.77m per MW describe plant capacity or realized output? Is that a national average or is that for a particular geography?

Looking at some more modern projects and it is actually looking pretty good. I don't know how to account for unused capacity as it seems most PV util setups use about 30% of their capacity (do you just multiply the cost by 1.7?)

Case 1:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Karap%C4%B1nar_solar_power_pla...

2023 Turkey - 1300MW capacity and a construction cost of 1.3b USD puts it at ~ $1m/MW capacity which is incredible.

Case 2

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mount_Signal_Solar

2018 USA - construction cost of $1.1b (maybe) and a capacity of 615MW so ~1.8m per MW

Case 3 (China nuclear)

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Fangjiashan_Nuclear_Power_Plan... is ~ 1.8m USD per MW capacity if we can trust their numbers.

Assuming a utilization of 80% (like other nuclear plants) this seems at worst cost competitive?


The USA quotes AC capacity, costs and power.

So a 100MW plant in the US quoted at $110 million including the cost of finance, profit margin, regulatory compliance, insurance and transmission with a capacity factor of 27% has 130MW DC of modules. Some other countries will quote DC so there may be a discrepancy. You can find harmonized comparions in things like the IRENA generation costs report, the ITRPV or the frauenhofer photovoltaics report. The US is also almost all single axis tracking where other countries may have fixed tilt as dominant.

New fixed tilt utility solar in 2023 is about 50-60c/Wdc or 80c/Wac. Single axis is about 70c/Wdc or $1/Wac.

The chinese nuclear project doesn't include inflation since 2008 (40%), cost of finance/escalation, chinese-government-accounting, or insurance. The (admitted) costs per watt of the chinese nuclear program have also increased substantially since 2008. Even with these, the claimed capex per MWh is comparable to solar in the west, but the O&M would make it much more expensive. Solar in china is 20-50% cheaper than the west.

Similarly costs for older nuclear plants in the US tend to exclude the cost of finance/escalation, as well as costs that were paid after they were "finished" due to upgrades needed for reliability (early capacity factors were <50%) and safety due to lessons learnt in incidents like browns ferry.

In the west O&M is about $30/MWh, which overlaps with the all-in cost of solar.

Also note that the cost of the Turkey facility you mentioned includes a factory which will produce many times more modules.

https://www.irena.org/Publications/2022/Jul/Renewable-Power-...

https://www.lazard.com/research-insights/2023-levelized-cost...


Topaz Solar Plant is my pet peeve in solar-v-nuclear cost comparisons online, because it pops up all the time and it narrowly misses the biggest story in energy: the cost of solar PV dropped by 90% in ten years! Solar went from being the most expensive way to generate energy to being the cheapest.

Unfortunately, people looking for comparison tend to search for the biggest solar installation, and Topaz pops out on that list. However, because solar is so modular, new installations tend to be small and quick.

Example: The Black Bear solar project in Alabama came online in Feb 2023, just 15 months after it secured $100 million in financing in Dec 2021. The project provides 100 MW (AC) of power. That's $1m / 1 MW of solar generating capacity.

The CEO of the Alabama Municipal Electric Authority is quoted as saying that, had Black Bear solar come online in Jan 2022, they would have saved $10 million in fuel costs (since natural gas prices jumped after the start of Putin's war).

https://lightsourcebp.com/us/project/black-bear-solar/

https://pv-magazine-usa.com/2021/12/20/130-mw-alabama-solar-...

https://www.greenvilleadvocate.com/2022/11/29/black-bear-sol...




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