Interesting that the pictures here that he mentions http://www.president.ir/en/9172 are from 2008, Stuxnet is from 2010. This picture http://www.president.ir/media/main/28838.jpg can be matched to the attack code. Wonder if who ever created it (US/Isreali gov't/attackers?) actually used this as evidence or had better inside sources...
I believe that its safe to say that at the level of incompetence of counter intelligence that has allowed for presidents team to publicly publish the images on the Internet, from which one versed in the field can read and discern the architecture and configuration of a top secret nuclear facility.
I believe that getting a spy into the facility like this would be no major obstacle for MOSAD or CIA, since they have in the past infiltrated even more secure organizations/facilities.
tl;dw: the "juice" Schneier refers to is essentially the correlation between a bunch of static array bounds in the Stuxnet code, the layout of Natanz' enrichment process as computed by a respected American nuclear physicist in a public paper (based on data from an intentional leak by the previous head of the Iranian nuclear program), and finally hard evidence of this layout in SCADA screenshots from the plant that were released by the Iranian government.
This summary makes the correlation sound almost coincidental, however the video makes a pretty convincing case.
In the video it was really cool to see where he points out the configuration of the 15 stages by looking at the top of the monitors in the foreground. Let that be a lesson to you opsen out there, don't let them see the big board!
At 28:35 he says: "This is a 100% match with what you see here. The most telling evidence are the missing dots here and here. These are your missing dots".
Which dots is he referring to? There are two prominent missing dots on the computer screen, but they are not present in his Stuxnet model.
He's talking about the screen on the right. Green dots indicate a centrifige, white dots indicate none. You can see the patterns line up with the table on the slide.
100% certainty is always nice, but I thought everyone was already pretty well convinced that it was designed to specifically attack that lab. At least, that was my impression from that big long article about it that was going around a while ago.
Yes there's nothing new here, except a public explanation about WHY everyone is pretty well convinced Natanz was the target. And it makes for a pretty interesting watch.
