This paper isn't worth the bits it's printed on.

Economist Mark Zandi (the author) missed predicting the biggest economic event not just of his career, but of three generations before him. Mostly, that was due to conflict of interest: Moody's was busy scooping up money to rate mortgage securities. What fraction of his oversight is due to just being a poor economist is unknown.

There are widows and orphans living poorer because of this clown. Don't waste your time.