After reading that I looked down at the desktop I'm writing this from.

I laughed.

Desktops are by no means "rare". Cell phones have just become ubiquitous, theres a difference. (Laptops too for that matter.)

One of my problems with current generation laptops and netbooks (Besides costing almost twice as much for the same performance.) is that despite being "mobile" computers I end up having to set it down on a flat surface every time I want to use it. Walking around and using your laptop at the same time? Not going to happen. (Unless you buy one of those chest-strap things I saw in the first splinter cell...) The OLPC solved this pretty elegantly with the handle on the back, which is made just perfectly so that you can actually hold the computer with one hand and operate it with the other. (This mainly works because the OLPC is more netbook than laptop.)

And then you get two more problems I have with the laptop form factor: Trackpad vs Mouse, "Keyboard" vs Keyboard.

Trackpads, even when you have a responsive one, are awful. They're like touch screens, but not as cool. If you have anything on your hands, it gets on the trackpad when you use it. Trackpads are too slow if they're set at a speed where your mouse can actually point, and uncontrollable if the speed is turned up.

The "Keyboard"s that comes with most laptops barely qualify for the word. Traditional desktop keyboards can have keys with a height greater than five millimeters. (I'm exaggerating obviously, but laptop keyboards are very flat.) and I much prefer this to keyboards that feel like I'm tapping on a piece of plastic cardboard. I'd almost rather forgo the keyboard entirely and just push down on the little gelatinous circles underneath directly. And don't get me started on replacing one of those keys if they break. (Which they often do.)

And no, touch screens aren't the answer. On laptop screens, touchscreen == dirty display. I already have a rant here about touch screens on mobile devices. On displays bigger than a laptop, you better not have been planning to sit more than an arm's length away from your monitor. Oh right, the future doesn't have big screens in it.

Desktops might not even be common in a decade, but they'll be there. If for nothing else because theres people like me who still like to sit down to a (awesome) computer setup.

You can use whatever keyboard you like, whatever input device you like, but there is no inherent reason why your computer has to be an ATX desktop form factor and anchored to the wall. If you could accomplish everything you currently do on your computer right now, with your phone and plugging your phone into a base station, then there would literally be no reason to have a desktop at all. We are only about 1-2 years away from this reality.

Well. I'd say it's more like five years away from any sort of mainstream acceptance. Not that I'm some anti-hipster, but I don't think it will become mainstream right away BECAUSE:

1) People without smart phones exist. I'm one of them.

2) Nobody is going to be satisfied with phone hardware to control both their phone and their sit-down setup. At least not for a few more generations of Moore's law, and Moore's laws current method for increasing power, stacking cores, is a battery vampire. People who want their phones to actually run for a non-trivial length of time will end up under-utilizing their hardware while on the go. (Hardware that they still payed money for.)

3) So lets say we still have the sit-down setup in the form of the base station. This brings up it's own set of questions:

[A] Where is data stored? What if someone steals your phone? What if you don't have one?

[B] Where does the computing power come from, is this just a shell for the phone or does it have some power on board?

Now we can wrangle over these questions for a while, but I'm quite confident the answers are "The base has an internal HD" and "The base has computer parts inside." at which point I have to ask; how is this that different from what we have now?

I mean, sure my desktop is a little heavier to move than a "base" might be. But unless this base is going to be like the old 90's laptop bases (Huge flat thing with peripherals that plugs into a smaller top.) I can't really see myself moving it. If it has a full fledged keyboard, monitor, and mouse, I can't see myself moving it. If it doesn't, then it's a laptop. With all the problems laptops entail. (Which can only be fixed by "desktopifying" it.)

Of course, marketing conquers all. That is what everyones always going after right, true marketing? Or was that true love? I think it was the marketing...

If you're working with a keyboard and mouse, and looking at a big screen, and you have a rich multi-tasking environment that does what you need it to do, does it matter if it's running on a smartphone that's connected via bluetooth to a keyboard/mouse and via DLNA to a screen? Why the need to have a big box containing your CPU, if a little one will do?

Desktop PC's will always find a niche, but they're already a niche today. Laptops by far outsell desktops, and smartphones+tablets by far outsell laptops. Right now you have to be a geek to buy a desktop, because regular people don't buy those anymore. I don't know anyone "normal" who bought a desktop in the last two years. The idea to buy anything other than a laptop simply doesn't arise. This happened in 5 years. Why couldn't a smartphone-centric transition happen in 5 years as well?