I don't think there is any strong argument for AGI (i.e., that it is somehow coming any time soon). In my explanatory framework all developments make sense as purely statistical algorithmic advances. The surprising and interesting applications involving images, language are not really changing that fundamental reality.

There is a case to be made that with sufficient ingenuity at some point people will expand the algorithmic toolkit into more flexible and powerful dimensions. It may integrate formal logic in some shape or form, or yet to be conceived mathematical constructs.

But the type of mental leap that I think would be required just to breakout of the statistical fitting straight-jacket cannot be invented to satisfy the timing of some market craze.

If you look at the broad outline of the development of mathematics there are many areas where we have hit a complexity wall and generations of talent have not advanced an iota.

Even if we condition on some future breakthrough, the next level of mathematical / algorithmic dexterity we might reach will follow its own intrinsic logic, which will probably be very interesting but may or may not have anything to do with human intelligence.