> I don't know how far away from this we are, it's very hard to predict.
On this point, I am in total agreement with you.
One way to tell might be, what happens if we let an AI try to improve itself? Does it get better, or worse? My money currently is on "worse". Well, how much worse? How far away are we from it being able to improve itself? I think we are an enormous distance away, almost an immeasurable distance, but I could be wrong.
> I think it's just as reasonable to assume that the curve of this progress is exponential as it is that it's logistic.
It's always logistic in the end. (But if we're on the first part of the curve, where it's exponential, that "in the end" bit doesn't matter.)
On this point, I am in total agreement with you.
One way to tell might be, what happens if we let an AI try to improve itself? Does it get better, or worse? My money currently is on "worse". Well, how much worse? How far away are we from it being able to improve itself? I think we are an enormous distance away, almost an immeasurable distance, but I could be wrong.
> I think it's just as reasonable to assume that the curve of this progress is exponential as it is that it's logistic.
It's always logistic in the end. (But if we're on the first part of the curve, where it's exponential, that "in the end" bit doesn't matter.)