Is that from the page labeled 9 of that PDF? That's wrong on 2 counts.

The first is that that graph is showing a breakdown by destination (i.e. 60% of requests to trace a gun that was later traced to a gun show came from Mexico, not that 60% of guns in Mexico are from US gun shows).

The second is that an FFL still has to conduct a background check, even if the sale occurs at a gun show. All of those guns either had a background check, or the dealer is going to jail. The "gun show loophole" only applies to normal people trying to sell a couple of guns. As soon as the ATF thinks that someone is "engaged in the business of dealing firearms" they are required to be licensed as an FFL, and must do background checks regardless of where the sale occurs. It's all in https://www.atf.gov/file/100871/download

Mexico only initiated 32k traces in 2021, which lends further support to my point that the majority of guns are not coming from the US. That number is incredibly small compared to the net new volume of guns cartels get on a yearly basis.

“Most cartels buy in bulk, and the weapons are coming from places like Nicaragua and other South American countries. Also Asia and some from the Middle East,” a Tijuana-based police authority who requested anonymity explained. “And, another factor is the CNC machines making uppers in clandestine shops in Mexico.” https://www.foxnews.com/world/mexico-guns-black-market-tepit...